Indianapolis 500 IndyCar Betting Picks and Preview (2022)

The Indianapolis 500 has run on the 2.5-mile Indianapolis Motor Speedway since 1911, and it’s the NTT IndyCar Series’ most prestigious annual event. This year will mark its 106th running. Motorsports fans know it as one of the Triple Crown events alongside the Monaco Grand Prix, which also runs on Memorial Day Weekend each year, and the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

This year’s Indianapolis 500 will feature several big names from around the world of racing. Former NASCAR and Formula One driver Juan Pablo Montoya will look for his third Indy 500 win this year with Arrow McLaren SP. Seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson will make his first Indy 500 start, and he’ll do it with Chip Ganassi Racing. Four-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves will look for a record-breaking fifth win this year with Meyer Shank Racing.

But it’s the full-time stars of the IndyCar Series who are the betting favorites for the event, and rightfully so. One-time winner Scott Dixon and third-year racer Alex Palou boast the shortest odds to win Sunday’s event. They qualified first and second, respectively, and Dixon even ran the fastest-ever pole lap at Indianapolis.

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Odds to Win the Indy 500

Best Bets for the Indy 500

The markets seem a bit off for this race. Sportsbooks are somewhat new to the NTT IndyCar Series, and while they usually post lines for the Indianapolis 500 each year, I think smart bettors can get an edge on the books. We've seen only one IndyCar Series race at an oval this year, and it came at Texas, a 1.5-mile track whose straightaways are nearly as fast as Indianapolis'. As a result, I plan to target a few drivers who did well at the event.

1. Winner: Alex Palou | +750 (.25u) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Palou has looked great on IndyCar's large oval circuits, and he almost won last year's Indy 500. He secured his first-ever IndyCar win last year at the Grand Prix of Alabama, and he followed it up with wins at Road America and Portland. While those are all road-course tracks, his large oval results speak for themselves: fourth at Texas 1, seventh at Texas 2, second at Indianapolis. Those results propelled him to his first NTT IndyCar Series Championship.

Palou also finished seventh at Texas this year, but the 25-year-old Spaniard showed more talent than the result indicates. He never ran faster than 10th in any practice session, and he started 11th on the grid. Yet that was enough for him to record a seventh-place result for Chip Ganassi Racing. Fortunately for Palou, he won't have to outperform his equipment on Sunday to secure a solid finish.

Palou has shown winning speed all week. He ran fourth in the last practice session before qualifying and first in the final practice session before Carb Day. He also qualified second for the event, and four of his Chip Ganassi Racing teammates will join him in the grid's top six. Ganassi is the team to beat this weekend, and Palou combines elite talent and betting value. Lock him in at +750 at FanDuel Sportsbook; you'll find him at only +550 at BetMGM and +600 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

2. Top 5: Alex Palou | -125 (1.25u) at BetMGM

Let's wager enough to profit a full unit here. I'm digging into historical practice trends for this play: no driver who ranked first in the traditional penultimate eighth practice session has finished worse than fifth without crashing out.

The trend has held since 2016, which is when the NTT IndyCar Series started running exactly nine practice sessions consistently. In 2021, Palou ran fastest in this session and finished second. In 2019 (2020 featured a shortened calendar due to COVID-19), Simon Pagenaud ran fastest in this session and won the race. Next, in 2017 (2018 saw Sage Karam win the session but crash out of the race), Max Chilton won the session and finished fourth. Lastly, in 2016, Josef Newgarden ran fastest in the session and finished third.

3. Top 5: Marcus Ericsson | +230 (.25u) at BetMGM

We'll target another Chip Ganassi Racing driver at a more profitable price via BetMGM. Like Palou, Ericsson won his first-ever race last season. However, he did so on Detroit's street circuit, and he then won another street race in Nashville. Although Ericsson isn't one of IndyCar's premier oval talents, he has shown enough speed and talent to warrant targeting him at this price.

Ericsson ran fifth in the penultimate practice session, and he'll also start from fifth on the grid for Sunday's event. He and his Chip Ganassi teammates have shown the most speed all weekend. That said, I'm especially keen on Ericsson because he also outperformed his equipment in Texas. He ran 14th fastest in final practice and started 14th on the grid, but he still brought his No. 8 Honda home in third place.

Entering this year's race, Ericsson's best finish at Indianapolis is 11th. That isn't great, but the 31-year-old Swede has usually brought speed—or a lack thereof—over from Texas. In 2021, he finished 19th and 12th in Texas before finishing 11th in Indianapolis. In 2020, he finished 19th in Texas before crashing out of the Indy 500 on lap 25. Ericsson isn't as much of a shoo-in for a strong result as Alex Palou, but this price underestimates how fast Chip Ganassi Racing has been all weekend.

4. Top 5: Santino Ferrucci | +1400 (.25u) at BetMGM

This is a lot more than I usually throw on a long shot, but Santino Ferrucci has shown some serious talent on ovals, and this is a seriously terrible line. The controversial former Formula 2 driver has since cut his teeth in both the NTT IndyCar Series and the NASCAR Xfinity Series, and we've often seen him outperform expectations.

Ferrucci has an average finish of 5.6 across three Indy 500 starts, yet he is a massive underdog for a similar result. Ferrucci's talent extends to other ovals, too. He finished fourth at Texas, Pocono, and Gateway in 2019, and he also finished ninth at Texas back in March.

Ferrucci will race for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing alongside Sage Karam at Indy this year. The team only races at Indianapolis, but Karam finished seventh with them in last year's event, so they aren't a true backmarker. Karam and Ferrucci ranked ninth and 16th, respectively, in the penultimate practice session. They'll start the race in 22nd and 15th.

Ferrucci may need some help from wrecks, cautions, or smart strategy calls, but he has the talent to bring his No. 23 Chevrolet home inside the top five. You'll find him at just +700 at DraftKings Sportsbook, so we're doubling our value by playing this at BetMGM.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.