Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick (2020)

Philip Rivers vs. Baker Mayfield may not elicit the same type of excitement as some of the other matchups this week will, but this contest still has plenty to offer. We have two of the most dynamic receivers in the league facing the league's number one scoring defense. We have two of the most talented running backs in the AFC squaring off against run defenses that have had their way this season. And finally, we have a battle between two teams expected to be fighting each other for one of the wild card spots later this season. This matchup may have much bigger implications than we can see in Week 5, and you can bet both locker rooms are aware of it. 

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Overview

The Cleveland Browns sit at 3-1 on the season, with their only loss coming to the Baltimore Ravens. Cleveland has finally become the offensive juggernaut we all thought they would be last year, and through four weeks of play are the highest scoring team in AFC (by one point). They have scored 124 through four games, with the Buffalo Bills at 123, and the Baltimore Ravens at 122. They have done so by leaning on the run. The dominance of the run forces defenses to put extra men in the box, at which point Baker Mayfield can allow one of his two star receivers to go to work. The Browns defense has been battered by injury, but outside of generational talent Myles Garrett, virtually every other defensive player not named Denzel Ward has been a disappointment. Most years Cleveland would be lamenting being as good as they are and possibly still not making the playoffs. Now with an extra wildcard spot, the postseason should be a certainty for the Browns. 

The 3-1 Indianapolis Colts own the best scoring defense in the league. They brought in some fantastic weapons this offseason, most notably in defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, former Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes, veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, and rookie wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts have suffered some major injuries to their receiving corps and are down Pittman for another four to six weeks, and lost Parris Campbell indefinitely. They will also be without star linebacker Darius Leonard for Week 5. 2020 has proven to be a battle of attrition like no other, and with Cleveland starting to get healthy at the same time the Colts are falling apart, the Colts are going to have to find a way to weather the storm against one of the hottest, and most talented teams in the AFC. 

Trends

• Colts are 3-1 ATS this season
• Browns are 2-2 ATS this season
• The home team is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams
• Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams

Prop Bets

Jonathan Taylor over 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
Taylor has rushed for 66 or more yards in two of his three starts this season with his lone under coming at the hands of a decrepit Jets defense that he averaged a season-high 4.54 yards per carry against. He saw just 13 carries, which is the only reason he managed just 59 rushing yards on the afternoon. He has averaged 21.5 carries in his other two starts. Cleveland's run defense has been strong this season against the running back position, allowing less than 66 yards per game to enemy running backs. They have held every individual running back they have faced this season under this mark, but gave up 70 rushing yards to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard despite blowing them out until their late game collapse. 

The juice should end up on the under for this prop, but the over is the play here. Perhaps it is because I believe in Taylor's talent and have seen that he is still thinking too much on the field, and has still cleared 66 rushing yards in two of his three starts. Even if the Browns hold him to their season average rushing yards per carry against of 3.59 per attempt, he will need just 19 carries to hit the number. Taylor could just use Quinton Nelson as his lead all day and get close to 50 rushing yards in this contest. There is definite appeal on both sides, but I am taking the Colts offensive line in what will be a run-heavy attack from Indianapolis. 

Final Thoughts

With superstar linebacker Darius Leonard ruled out for Week 5, the Colts are going to be missing a critical piece of the defense that has held opponents to the fewest points per game in the NFL. That is going to be a problem against the highest scoring team in the AFC. Both of these teams prefer to be run first, however, they will both be facing an opponent that has held opposing running backs to under 65 rushing yards per game. Something has to give, and the expectation is that both backfield’s approach or pass 100 yards on the ground in this one. However, one team is more equipped to play from behind if need be, and that is the Cleveland Browns. As mentioned above, the Colts are missing two of their top three receivers and may have issues if they let the Browns get off to a fast start. Take the Browns for Week 5. 

48 points is the magic number for this contest. The books have left zero value on either side for this contest with the perfectly set line. The over is the play simply because 48 is the number as opposed to 47, but buying points straight up or in a teaser card is the suggestion for those who wish to partake in the total for this game. The 42 points at -208 is the best value, but the 43.5 at -167 may be more appealing for those not willing to suffer the extra juice. However, for those not willing to risk the extra juice, tap the over, possibly just for a partial unit taste. 

Pick: Browns +1 (-115) & Over 47.5 (-115)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.