Iowa State vs. Tennessee State: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Iowa State vs. Tennessee State.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Iowa State vs. Tennessee State

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Iowa State 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Head Coach TJ Otzelberger has Iowa State ranked in the top 15 nationally in KenPom defense in each of his five seasons in Ames. The 2025-26 Cyclones are no different, and the offense around that defensive base may be the best Otzelberger has assembled.

Joshua Jefferson, the 6-9 senior forward, has posted two triple-doubles this season and ranks second in KenPom's Player of the Year rating, behind only Cam Boozer, while sitting fifth in EvanMiya's player rating. Tamin Lipsey is one of the cleanest point guards in the country, posting an elite assist rate while being able to steal cookies from any opponent. Milan Momcilovic, the junior sharpshooter, leads the nation in three-point percentage and has had seven games of 25 or more points this season. When all three are going, Iowa State is legitimately difficult to prepare for with a short turnaround.

Some pause for Iowa State might come when you dive into their away-from-home numbers. Six of their seven losses came outside of Ames, and they rank 261st in Haslametrics away-from-home metric. It's also questionable whether they can step up in competition, ranking 314th in Haslametrics' paper tiger factor and dropping from seventh overall to 15th with an offense outside the top 50 against Quad I opponents.

Obviously, that's a bit nitpicky. Of course it's harder to play the best teams, and Iowa State went blow for blow against Arizona in the Big 12 semifinal. The talent is undeniably there, the coaching is easy to trust, and the experience cannot be questioned. It's just a matter of whether the Cyclones can put it all together for a deep run.

Tennessee State 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Nolan Smith won OVC Co-Coach of the Year honors in his first season, and the Tigers qualified for March Madness for the first time in 32 years. What got them here was a relentless focus on the possession battle. Tennessee State dominated the OVC in field goal attempt differential and controlled both the offensive and defensive glass, ranking 12th in overall field goal attempt rate allowed. Aaron Nkrumah ranks fifth in steal rate, anchoring a roster full of active, disruptive defenders who can affect the ball all over the floor.

The problem is context. Tennessee State played two top-100 opponents this season and struggled to stick to their identity in those games. The Tigers had a 334th-ranked effective field goal percentage and couldn't take care of the ball, unlike how they played in conference. When they attack the basket, they win. When they’re forced into jumpers and midrange pull-ups, they lose. When their three-point attempt rate was below 31%, they went 15-1 (not including their D-II matchup). In all other games, they were 5-8. Against an elite defense that can keep them out of the paint, the Tigers don’t have a reliable answer. First-round survival is a tall order.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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