Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders Odds & Game Pick

by Raju Byfield |
Dec 14, 2019

The Raiders’ final game in Oakland will take place this Sunday afternoon. In what is sure to be an emotionally charged battle, the Oakland Raiders will take on the banged-up Jacksonville Jaguars. After opening at -5.5, the Raiders are a much larger than expected -6.5 consensus point spread favorites. The sharps and the public both seem to be behind the Raiders to cover. But is it the right call? Let’s dig in to find out.

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Jaguars at Raiders Odds and Info

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -5.5 on the Oakland Raiders. The consensus over/under total opened at 45.5 points. The point spread has climbed to -6.5. The over/under total has held steady at 45.5.
Current Line: Oakland -6.5
O/U: 45.5
Location: RingCentral Coliseum, Oakland, California
Start Time: 4:05 PM EST, Sunday, December 15th
Last Meeting: Oakland defeated Jacksonville 33-16 - October 23, 2016

See consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Jaguars at Raiders. >>

Overview

The 6-7 Oakland Raiders have been solid at home where they hold a 4-2 record. They will be looking to pick up their fifth home win of the season in the franchise’s final game in Oakland before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have dealt with some turmoil this season, with the standout issue being the Antonio Brown saga. They also lost 2019 first-round pick, Jonathan Abram, after just one game. With that being said, they have had their bright spots, most notably in rookie running back Josh Jacobs, and converted wide receiver to tight end Darren Waller. General manager Mike Mayock was able to put some good building blocks in place, but they still have some work left to do.

The Raiders have flashed at times this season. They won three of their first five games, with their losses coming to playoff teams in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings. They were also able to reel off three straight wins, all of them coming at home. The Raiders had a chance at the playoffs as recently as Week 11, but their three straight losses have all but eliminated them from contention. The second wild card team in the AFC will need to secure at least nine wins, a mark the Raiders would have to win out to achieve. This weekend's contest is going to be an interesting one to take in, even if it just happens in spurts via NFL RedZone.

The 5-8 Jacksonville Jaguars have some decisions to make. After completing the controversial signing of Nick Foles this offseason, the Jaguars thought it prudent to draft the most accurate signal-caller in the 2019 NFL Draft (based on college stats) to be his backup. Fast forward to Week 15 of the season, and their $88 million dollar quarterback has been benched in favor of a sixth-round rookie. Foles received $30.75 million for just four starts.

The Jaguars season has been a mess from Foles being hurt in their very first game of the season, to star linebacker Telvin Smith announcing he would be sitting out the entire season due to a personal matter. The injuries have piled up as well, Myles Jack was just recently placed on injured reserve, and fellow linebacker in rookie Quincy Williams has also been lost for the season. Breakout receiver D.J. Chark was in a walking boot as recently as Monday and is not expected to play this weekend after missing two straight practices. The Jaguars, of course, have had their bright spots this season, most notably in the form of the aforementioned D.J. Chark and Gardner Minshew. However, they have also seen Leonard Fournette finally start to live up to his immense potential as one of the NFL's few remaining workhorses, and have seen rookie edge rusher Josh Allen rack up nine sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. The Jaguars are going to have their work cut out for them this weekend in what as mentioned will be an emotionally charged affair.

Trends

Jacksonville is 5-8 ATS on the season.
Jacksonville is 3-3 on the road this season.
Oakland is 6-7 ATS on the season.
Oakland is 3-3 ATS at home this season.
Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last five contests.
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in their last six December contests.
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last five contests as an underdog.
Oakland is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Oakland is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests.
Oakland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home contests.
Oakland is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 contests following a straight-up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Jacksonville's last four contests as a road underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Jacksonville's last five contests against the AFC.
Under is 4-1 in Jacksonville's last five December contests.
Over is 4-1 in Oakland's last five road contests.
Under is 5-2 in Oakland's last seven contests as a favorite.
Under is 9-3-1 in Oakland's last 13 contests against the AFC.

Prop Bets

Josh Jacobs over 74.5 rushing yards (-208)
With a great matchup with a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has been hemorrhaging rushing yards in their recent games, Josh Jacobs is a great player to target for an over rushing prop. With that being said, the only player props available before the weekend are the pick your total over/under offerings. The over 100 rushing yards at +120 offers little to no value as the weekend player prop over/under total will be significantly lower, at similar enough to juice to fade this line. The over 74.5 line offers a lot of value, but the suggestion here is to take the over on one of the weekend lines. If you cannot wait and are willing to eat heavy juice for a line that should be about 10 yards lower than the line available by the weekend, and at much more reasonable juice, than the over 74.5 is the best bet.

Jacobs is averaging 88.4 rushing yards per game and is on track to return in Week 15 after reportedly looking great in Thursday's practice. The fractured shoulder is, of course, a concern, but Jacobs was playing through it for weeks before being ruled inactive last week. He has cleared 74.5 rushing yards in eight of his 12 contests this season. He has rushed for 85 or more yards in seven of his 12 contests. The Jaguars have surrendered 147 or more rushing yards to the running back position in four of their last five games (the Buccaneers were the only team that missed the mark). Jacobs has averaged 5.47 yards per carry on the season.

Bottom Line

The line for this contest opened at a -5.5 spread on Oakland that was larger than anticipated. The Raiders should win this contest and are a better team, but not superior enough to warrant an extra -2.5 on the -3 traditionally assigned to home teams in contests that are projected to be tightly contested. Gardner Minshew has struggled since being reinserted as the starter and will be without his number one receiver D.J. Chark. The Jaguars linebacking corps is a mess. Being without top linebacker Telvin Smith was bad enough, but now the Jags have placed Myles Jack, Quincy Williams, and Jake Ryan on injured reserve. Rookie edge rusher Josh Allen was a terrific steal for the Jaguars, but Sacksonville is no more. Gone are the coverage sacks that Jalen Ramsey's presence helped create. The Jaguars also decided to kick Calais Campbell inside to defensive tackle for a significant portion of his snaps, a move that has resulted in 20 QB hits and nine tackles for loss, but just 6.5 sacks. Oakland is the play, but their trends suggest they are a risky bet for more than one unit of action. Luckily, Jacksonville's trends suggest they would be the riskier play despite the current 6.5 point cushion. Punch in the Raiders at -6.5 at just five cents juice at PointsBet before the line increases.

Pick: Oakland Raiders -6.5 (-105)

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 15

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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