Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Week 10 features a matchup at Lambeau Field between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Green Bay Packers that appears to be very one-sided. To nobody’s surprise, the Packers are the heavy home favorites.
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Jaguars vs. Packers Odds and Info
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Game Odds
Overview
Due to a hand injury to Gardner Minshew, Jaguars rookie Jake Luton made his first NFL start last week, and he nearly completed the comeback against the Texans. The rookie passed for 304 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He also used his legs to complete a 13-yard touchdown run. While he alone may not lose this game for the Jaguars, there’s a chance that the defense will.
Jacksonville’s defense continues to struggle, as they give up the second-most yards per play (6.4), third-highest completion percentage (70.15%), and allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry (though this is skewed, as opposing offense are often in clear run-heavy situations). They will have a tough time stopping a Packers offense that averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. When the running game works, it makes the play-action and Aaron Rodgers that much more dangerous. Rodgers is performing like an MVP this season, having an adjusted completion percentage of 78.9 percent of his passes. He also has a league-best passer rating (117.5) and QBR (87.6).
While Jacksonville’s defense has been bad, Green Bay’s is right there with them. The Packers allowed the second-highest completion percentage in the league (70.28%) and a below-average 6.0 yards per play. Yes, the Packers rightfully are heavy favorites, but that does not mean the Jaguars won’t have success.
Trends
- Jacksonville is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.
- The total has hit the over in six of Jacksonville’s last nine games.
- Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
Prop Bet
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
To Score First and Win: Packers (-138)
The Packers have scored on every first drive this season, and I expect this pattern to continue on Sunday. If they get the ball first, they will certainly score first, and they are nearly a lock to win. If they kickoff to begin the game, cross your fingers and hope the defense used their extra days off to prepare.
Bottom Line
After a few extra days of rest, the Packers are likely returning more players to their lineup. I would assume David Bakhtiari is back. Allen Lazard also traveled with the team last Thursday, so there’s a solid chance Rodgers has another receiver available. I don’t see Jacksonville presenting anything to challenge the Packers offense, while Green Bay’s pass rushers should put more heat on Luton than he saw last week, forcing him to make mistakes. I like them to cover, but I also think Jacksonville will score enough to push the over.
Pick: Packers -13.5, Over 50
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