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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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While it isn’t necessarily the marquee game on the board in Week 1, the AFC South Division battle between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans could turn out to be a fun one. After the two teams combined to win just five games last season, both will be trying to get the 2021 NFL season started on a high note. Armed with a brand new franchise quarterback, the Jaguars find themselves laying points on the road.

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Details

Opening Lines: Jaguars -3; O/U 45.5
Current Lines: Jaguars -3; O/U 45
Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, TX
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: November 8, 2020 — The Texans defeated the Jaguars 27-25 in Jacksonville.

Overview

Does anyone else remember all the way back to when the Jaguars started the 2020 season 1-0? After losing their remaining 15 games last year, that Week 1 upset win over the eventual AFC South Divison Champion Tennessee Titans seemed like a whole lifetime ago. The Jaguars landed the rights to the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and selected former Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence to be their franchise centerpiece going forward. While optimism is high surrounding Lawrence and the offense, turning things around in Duval County figures to take more than a single offseason.

Lawrence will have a slew of talented playmakers alongside him to begin his NFL career. Although highly-touted rookie running back Travis Etienne was lost for the year to injury, James Robinson returns to lead the Jags’ backfield. Wideouts D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones are a formidable trio as well. The biggest concerns for Jacksonville reside along the offensive line and on the defensive side of the ball. Youth, inexperience, and an overall lack of talent abound in both sectors. In addition, the decision to hire Urban Meyer as the new head coach was a very uninspiring one.

It has been an offseason of turmoil for the Texans. The team wasn’t good last season by any means, winning just four games even with QB Deshaun Watson played hero ball seemingly every week. Now, Houston is set to begin the season with Watson rendered inactive amid his ongoing legal battles. As a result, Tyrod Taylor is set to be the Week 1 starter. Unfortunately, the roster around him is once again severely lacking in talent. 

Other than Brandin Cooks, the Texans do not have any difference-makers on offense. The backfield will be some concoction featuring David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Phillip Lindsay. None exactly strike immense fear in opposing defenses. Speaking of defenses, Houston’s barely registered last season. Expect more of the same in 2021, with linebacker Zach Cunningham pretty much being the lone bright spot.

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Trends

  • The Jaguars went 7-9 against the spread (ATS) last season.
  • Over the total was 8-8 for the Jaguars last season.
  • The Texans were 6-10 ATS last season.
  • The Over was 8-8 for the Texans last season.
  • Texans are 8-2 SU in their last ten head-to-head matchups against the Jaguars.

Bottom Line

While neither the Jaguars nor Texans are expected to be a playoff team this season, the NFL betting lines for this Week 1 game are very telling. Making a team that won a single game last year a road favorite in a divisional showdown shows just how far down the betting public is on Houston. It’s worth noting that the Jaguars’ offensive line struggled mightily in the preseason. It’s also worth noting that, despite an overwhelming ticket count and money percentage on the road favorites, this line dipped down a half-point to 2.5 earlier in the week. Such reverse line movement can only signify some sharp action on the Texans as home dogs. They are certainly an ugly underdog to back, but there is really no other appealing way to play this game.

Pick: Texans +3

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive.