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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick (2021)

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Among the early-afternoon action in Week 17 is an AFC contest between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots. Pretty much the only similarity between these two franchises is that they each drafted a quarterback in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. While the Jaguars are trending towards once again picking first overall in 2022, the Patriots have their sights set on locking up a playoff spot. It’s hard to believe that it was only four years ago that these teams met in the AFC Championship Game. The NFL betting odds list the home team as a massive favorite ahead of this matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Patriots -15.5; O/U 42
Current Lines: Patriots -16.5; O/U 41.5
Location: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: September 16, 2018 — The Jaguars defeated the Patriots 31-20 in Jacksonville.

Overview

This season has been a major struggle for the Jaguars, to say the least. In addition to the shenanigans and eventual dismissal of head coach Urban Meyer, No. 1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence has been far from impressive. The Jaguars haven’t even been able to beat some of the worst teams in the NFL, losing twice to the Houston Texans and dropping another decision to the miserable New York Jets last week. How Jacksonville managed to knock off the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills earlier in the season remains one of life’s greatest mysteries. 

Given the fact that Lawrence and the offense have been extremely ineffective against some of the NFL’s poorer defensive teams, it’s difficult to envision them generating much against the Patriots. A talent-depleted unit took another hit last week when star running back James Robinson suffered a torn Achilles. Lawrence’s top options for the final two weeks of the season include Dare Ogunbowale, Laquon Treadwell, and James O’Shaughnessy. That’s not exactly a star-studded trio. Jacksonville also ranks 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. While the Jaguars have been able to stop the run at times, they’ll be hard-pressed to do so against the bruising New England attack. 

The Patriots enter this NFL betting matchup on the heels of two consecutive losses. A seven-game winning streak going into a Week 14 bye feels like a distant memory. Last Sunday’s home defeat at the hands of the Bills proved particularly costly. New England will now likely be forced to settle for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs as opposed to winning the AFC East Division title. Fortunately for Bill Belichick’s team, this Week 17 tilt against the lowly Jaguars presents a perfect opportunity to get back on track. The Patriots still rank third in overall adjusted defense on the season and should have little difficulty shutting down the hapless Jacksonville offensive attack.

While rookie QB Mac Jones has easily been the top signal-caller of the 2021 draft class, many NFL betting analysts were quick to hop off the bandwagon after his poor performance last week. In reality, the blame for New England’s loss to Buffalo can hardly be placed squarely on Jones himself. The Patriots did not play anywhere close to their best football last Sunday. Even in defeat, lead RB Damien Harris posted a monster line of 103 yards rushing and three touchdowns. The rushing attack continues to be the bread and butter of New England’s offense. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is set to rejoin Harris in the backfield after being freed from virus protocols earlier this week.

Trends

  • Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
  • Eight of the Jaguars’ last ten games have gone under the total.
  • Patriots are 7-2 both SU and ATS in their last nine games.
  • Each of the Patriots’ last five home games has gone over the total.
  • Patriots are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS all-time in head-to-head matchups against the Jaguars at home.

Bottom Line

It is worth pointing out that we rarely see such lopsided NFL betting point spreads and totals in the low 40’s paired together on the same game. The ineptitude of the Jaguars’ offense and the run-first approach of the Patriots’ attack both play into the abnormal line pairing. Despite having to lay a massive number of 16.5, 61% of spread bets are on New England as home favorites at the time of writing.

It is really tough to decipher how the Jaguars’ will score in this game. Perhaps the better question is whether they will score at all? Not only are the Patriots one of the toughest defenses they have faced all year, but Jacksonville is also depleted in terms of the usual offensive playmakers. This should be a comfortable get-right spot for New England on both sides of the ball. One has to believe that the Patriots will be content to grab a lead and lean on Damien Harris and their rushing attack to drain the clock as quickly as they can. The total is low indeed, but it still isn’t low enough. 

Pick: Under 41.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.