Jaguars vs. Browns NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)
Introducing the Week 2 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Jaguars and Browns.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns (-3)
Sides:
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in ten of their last 13 road games.
- But the Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.
- The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite while just 2-5 as an underdog since the start of last season.
- The Browns are 5-7-1 ATS in their last 13 road appearances (42%).
Totals:
- Four of the Jags' last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last nine games.
- Eight of the Browns’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Browns have lost 15 of their last 18 road openers.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last five games against the Browns.
- Browns are 12-6-1 toward the over in their last 19 games.
Overall:
In Week 1 of the 2023 season, Jacksonville showed they were more than happy to run the football when the matchups call for it, indicated by the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate. Fast forward to Week 1 of this season, and we saw the Jaguars deploy another run-heavy approach, 25th in pass rate over expectation (-8%) with a true 50% run rate. Everything was clicking for the Jaguars offensively. Then things unraveled.
The Jaguars were on their way to going up 24-7 at the end of the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled into the end zone. Tyreek Hill scored a long TD on the very next play for Miami's offense. A 14-point swing in two plays.
Regardless, I'd expect a bounce-back effort for Jacksonville at home. Despite the loss last week, they still covered the 3.5-point spread (should have won outright). Can't help but think the line would be larger had they emerged victorious.
And it's the reeling Browns led by Deshaun Watson who are coming to town.
Watson completed 24 of 45 passes for just 169 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 51.1. His inability to consistently connect with his receivers and turnovers hindered the Browns' offensive production. He was constantly under pressure (45%) which led to six sacks. They had one first down in the first half. WOOF.
Given the Browns' offensive struggles with Watson (and the horrific home/road splits with the Browns’ defense, I love backing DUVAL county by a field goal at home.
As for the total, it's low enough at 41.5 for me to swing for the over. I fully expect the Browns to pass given their positive pass rate over expectation in Week 1. The Jaguars also showed last week that they will not be pushed around against the run limiting Miami's explosive run game to just 3.2 yards per carry.
Cleveland should also hold up better in pass protection, given tackle Jack Conklin is expected to make his return. Meanwhile, Myles Garrett is questionable after missing Thursday's practice.
And although the Jaguars opened with a run-heavy approach in Week 1, they have done this before. Last year they opened run heavy, just to open up the passing game in Week 2 with a +13% pass rate over expectation.
The Jaguars’ Week 1 offense was clicking when rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. was the focal point, with four catches for 47 yards and one TD in the first half alone. Trevor Lawrence attempted seven passes in the second half.
Don't expect that two weeks in a row. Take the Jags and bet the over. Note that this game is expected to have rain. Weather adds more variance to NFL games (for better or for worse) so consider that before you place your wagers.
Props:
- The Jaguars allowed the most catches to RBs in 2023. That trend continued in Week 1, with De'Von Achane catching seven balls.
- Jerome Ford was effective in the passing game versus Dallas, catching six of seven targets for 25 yards (23% target rate). But he only rushed for 44 yards. In the first half alone, he had four carries for 11 yards. Jacksonville locked down the Dolphins' ground game in Week 1. Expect more of the same in Week 2.
- Amari Cooper had a quiet Week 1, catching only two of his nine targets for 16 yards (20% target share, 95% route participation). Watson missed him deep for a walk-in touchdown. He was targeted twice in the red zone. Over 100 air yards. You know what to do. Cooper's boom-or-bust mantra remains undefeated. Buy. Low. The Jaguars just placed starting CB Tyson Campbell on IR. Safety Darnell Savage is also banged up.
- In 2023, Cooper posted six games with 34 or fewer receiving yards. In the other nine games he went over 77 receiving yards. When you bet Cooper props, you bet the alternative number. Especially with David Njoku out for Week 2.
My Picks: