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Jaguars vs. Jets NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 15)

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Introducing the Week 15 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 15 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Jaguars vs. Jets.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 15 Betting Primer>>

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides:

  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Jaguars have lost 15 of their last 19 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 14 of their last 20 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 19 games.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 3-13 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The Jaguars have lost 11 of their last 12 games as underdogs.
  • ATS they are 8-2 as a home underdog and 5-5 on the money line.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games as home underdogs dating back to last season (although it does depend on the final closing line).
  • In seven of the Jaguars' last eight games, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Jets have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost each of nine of their 10 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 19 of their last 24 games. 3-10 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games against teams with winning records.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.

Totals:

  • Six of the Jaguars' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • They are 2-3 toward the over at home (44 points per game).
  • Seven of the Jaguars’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Jags' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 21 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
  • Sixteen of the Jets’ last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 4-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.

Overall:

What is the easiest way to have lost money gambling on the NFL in 2024? Betting on the Jets as favorites. Gang Green has lost five of their last six games as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars? They have covered the spread in four of their last five games. 5-1-1 record against the number in their last seven games. 8-2 ATS as home underdogs.

I will not be swayed by Aaron Rodgers' 300-yard performance last week - his first 300-yard passing game since 2021.

The Jaguars are historically bad on defense because they give up massive chunk yardage. Rodgers gets the ball out so quickly that I don't think he will actually be able to take advantage of the suspect defense.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars’ defense has allowed league-highs in completions (23) and yards (847) on deep (20+ air yard) attempts this season.

On pass attempts of 10 air yards or more, the Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to record a +4.4% completion percentage above expected, the 2nd-highest in the NFL. Matchup: Rodgers has recorded a -8.0% CPOE on downfield pass attempts, the 4th-lowest in the NFL and his lowest since at least 2018.

The Jets find ways to lose no matter the circumstances, whereas Jacksonville seemingly finds a way to cover week in and week out.

As for the total – it’s another UNDER. The Jaguars have averaged 10 points per game with Mac Jones as the primary quarterback this season.

However, I do think they will be able to move the ball between their best offensive players, Tank Bigsby and Brian Thomas Jr.

According to Next Gen Stats, Tank Bigsby has averaged 4.4 yards after contact per carry this season, the most among running backs (min. 75 carries).

Bigsby has averaged 4.9 yards per carry on inside rushes this season, the 7th-most among running backs (min. 40 inside carries). The Jets’ defense has allowed running backs to gain an average 3.5 yards after contact per carry on inside rushes (5th-most).

Last week, Bigsby led the ground game with 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown.

Travis Etienne contributed on the ground with 20 yards and through the air with 50 yards on four receptions, including an impressive 21-yard catch.

In the red zone, Bigsby had two rush attempts, 1 rushing touchdown, and no targets. Etienne Jr. had one rush attempt, no touchdowns, no targets.

Bigsby out-carried Etienne 6 versus one in the first half. Final snaps were 53% for Bigsby and 47% for Etienne. Etienne ran the most routes, but Bigsby dominated the early down usage.

I think this means we can "trust" Bigsby versus the Jets (famous last words).

Props:

New York is tied for the 5th-most deep passes face this season (allowing the fifth-most deep passing yards per game). BTJ is the Jaguars' big-play threat and has been getting it done with Jones as his quarterback.

Thomas Jr. was the top receiver last week, hauling in 8 of 12 targets for 86 yards (40% Target share and 39% target rate per route run). The rookie wide receiver dominated with 113 air yards (74% air yards share) with two red-zone targets. Nobody else had more than 15 air yards.

He is proving his worth as a "QB-proof" asset in recent weeks.

In the last three games, BTJ has a 29% Target share, 44% air yards share, and 81-plus receiving yards per game.

The Jaguars are one of the worst defenses against TEs, so you could do worse than a Tyler Conklin receiving yards prop in some SGP action. They have allowed the third-most receiving TDs and second-most red-zone targets to TEs this season.

My Picks:

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