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Jazz vs. Clippers ATS Pick for 1/16 (Sports Betting)

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For tonight’s game, we will be going out west for a matchup between two playoff-hopeful squads. While these two teams may be close in the standings, they couldn’t be further apart in the way they match up.

Current Form

Jazz
Utah storms into tonight’s matchup playing their best basketball of the season. The Jazz have capitalized on a soft January schedule by winning six of their last seven games. Utah needed late pushes to scrape by the Pistons, Bulls, and Magic during this homestand. Donovan Mitchell has snapped out of his early-season slump and his improved play has been the major reason for the team’s recent success. Utah will be playing this game on one day’s rest (15-12 record on one day’s rest).

Clippers
Los Angeles limps into Wednesday’s game on a three-game losing streak. Outside of the blowout loss in Denver, the Clippers have been competitive in their last two losses with both games coming down to the final seconds. Despite being predicted to finish in the lottery, Los Angeles continues to stay in the thick of the playoff race with an unconventional roster. The Clippers’ veteran roster has shown their resiliency through following up every losing streak with a winning streak. Los Angeles will be playing this game on one day’s rest (13-10 record on one day’s rest).

Edge: Even
Utah isn’t playing as well as their winning streak suggests, as they have beaten up on inferior opponents. Conversely, Los Angeles isn’t playing as poorly as their losing streak would indicate as they have been competitive in their losses. Furthermore, both teams have performed well when playing on one day’s rest.

Statistical Breakdown

Jazz
Utah prides itself on its stingy defense. With Rudy Gobert protecting the rim, the Jazz rank fourth in Defensive Rating (104.5) and second in Opponent Points off Fast Breaks (10.7). However, the Jazz have slipped out of the top three into 10th in Opponent Points in the Paint per Game (47). In addition to Gobert, Utah has an assortment of capable perimeter defenders who help execute the team’s scheme by preventing penetration. Utah will be without their best guard defender (Rubio) and perimeter defender (Sefolosha) for this matchup.

Offensively, Utah is dependent on Donovan Mitchell’s creation. Utah’s offense sputtered during the beginning of the season as Mitchell was shooting below 35% from the field. Without another viable shot creator, the Jazz remained below .500 for the first few months of the season. However, over his last five games (4-1 record in these games) Mitchell is averaging 30.8 Points, 5.0 Assists, and 4.4 Rebounds per Game.

Clippers
The Clippers’ offensive attack is based on the team’s ability to get fouled while attacking the rim. Los Angeles ranks first in both Percent of Points off Free Throws (20%) and Free Throws Attempted per Game (28.8). The Clippers are the only team in the league with three players (Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, and Montrezl Harrell) who rank in the top 21 in Free Throws Attempted per Game. Additionally, the Clippers have been cashing in at the line as the team ranks fourth in the NBA in Free Throw Percentage (80.1%).

In the absence of a true superstar, the Clippers rely on their depth as a matchup advantage. With a quality 10-man rotation, Los Angeles leads the NBA in Bench Points per Game (52.1). The Clippers might be the first team in the NBA History to have two legitimate candidates for 6th Man of the Year in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. The Clippers also boast a deep guard rotation that regularly gives the team 48 minutes of quality defense in the backcourt.

Edge: Clippers
Los Angeles will have no problem playing their desired brand of basketball tonight. Due to injuries (Rubio, Sefolosha, and Exum), the Jazz will be forced to turn to Grayson Allen and Raul Neto for minutes. Both of these players are poor defenders who will struggle to defend the Clippers’ penetration. With no resistance on the perimeter, Rudy Gobert will have to overextend himself on defense which will lead to early foul trouble. Utah’s propensity to foul (22nd in Personal Fouls per Defensive Play) will be exacerbated by the team’s shortened rotation. Additionally, the Clippers’ bench will have a significant advantage against Utah’s scrambling bench unit.

Line Analysis

The opening line for this matchup was -1 Clippers. The line has already moved to -1.5 Clippers thanks to 71% of public action backing LA. The heavy public action on the Clippers side isn’t surprising as the Jazz are rarely backed by the public. So far, the sharp bettors agree with the public and have put up no resistance to the early line movement. With the public and sharp bettors backing, this line should end up at -2 by tip-off.

Edge: Clippers
The current Clippers’ line contains value at -1.5 as the number will get pushed up further by the heavy public action on the Clippers throughout the day.

Verdict: Clippers

Utah’s shortened rotation of poor perimeter defenders will struggle to keep the Clippers off the charity stripe. With Gobert in early foul trouble, the team’s defense will crater. Take Los Angeles -1.5 in a game they will dictate from the opening tip.

Jeremy Homler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeremy, check out his archive.