Jets vs. 49ers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
San Francisco (SF) vs. New York Jets (NYJ): SF -4.5
Sides
- The 49ers were the most overrated team at home ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth-worst in the NFL in 2023.
- The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers' last 12 games.
- The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last seven home games.
- SF is 10-4 ATS when they score 23 or more points in 2023.
- The 49ers’ offense was one of the healthiest in the NFL in terms of adjusted games lost last season, while the 2023 Jets’ offense was one of the worst.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
- The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games.
- The 2023 Jets were 6-10-1 ATS in 2023.
- The Jets were 43% ATS as an underdog, 5-9 overall in 2023.
- The favorites have won the first half in 15 of the Jets' last 17 games.
Totals
- Nine of the 49ers’ last 10 season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Jets' last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nine of the Jets' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Both teams boasted top 10 red zone defenses in 2023.
- Prime time under close to 75% over the past two seasons.
Overall
Let the season-long fade of the San Franciso 49ers commence. Last season, this team was vastly overrated by ATS as home favorites. They were viewed as a "juggernaut" but never quite lived up to expectations. And we saw what happened to the offense when any of the key offensive pieces missed time. Fast forward to 2024, and the vibes in the Bay Area haven't been glowing. Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk are back, but they've missed almost the entire preseason due to contract holdouts. Chrisitan McCaffrey has also missed time dealing with a calf injury. Then, consider the team was forced to place first-rounder Ricky Pearsall on the NFI list after he was shot in an attempted robbery. This has hardly been an ideal off-season for a team looking to fend off the Super Bowl hangover. I do not believe them to be that fortunate.
Then you have the Jets, who are all-in on the 2024 season after a nightmarish 2023 campaign. However, the optics of their roster have improved ten-fold, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers is set out to prove something this year as a legitimate AFC contender, and I think they will show it on Monday night.
Props
- Mike Williams is returning from a torn ACL. He could easily be on a snap count in Week 1. Not to mention, he's playing with Aaron Rodgers for the first time ever. Rodgers always goes to the guys he trusts, and I find it hard to believe Big Mike will be his go-to guy in the season opener.
- Elijah Mitchell was inactive during weeks 2,4,5, 14, 15, and 16 of the 2023 regular season. Deebo Samuel saw at least three carries in four of those six contests. That's more than enough volume to get him over 10 yards in Week 1. Look for Sameul to shoulder some early-season rushing work with CMC returning from his own injury and Mitchell on the IR.
- Brandon Aiyuk has a horrible matchup this week against one of the league’s best secondaries. Coming off a completely truncated offseason, you don’t need to squint to see Aiyuk having a down game in Week 1. Keep in mind that last year, in Aiyuk’s final 10 games, he was under this number (while completely integrated with the 49ers offense) in 6 of his last 10.
My Picks