Jets vs. Bills: NFL Week 1 Picks & Player Prop Bets (2023)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Stay tuned for an exciting journey through the world of NFL betting - it’s time to elevate your game! Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 1 games. And below I offer my top picks and player prop bets for Jets vs. Bills.
NFL Betting Primer: Jets vs. Bills
New York Jets (NYJ) vs. Buffalo Bills (BUF) – Spread: NYJ +2.5
Josh Allen is 3-1 versus Jets head coach Robert Saleh over the past two seasons. The lone loss came back in Week 9 of last year, in a game where the Bills QB suffered an elbow injury. Buffalo was an 11-point favorite entering that contest. Obviously, upgrading at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers in New York makes this a much closer contest, but not to the extent where Buffalo should remain just a 1.5-point or 2.5-point road favorite. Buffalo beat Rodgers 27-17 back in Week 8 of the 2020 season as double-digit favorites. Should also be noted that before dropping that Week 9 contest vs. Gang Green, Buffalo was 3-1 on the road versus the reigning SB champs, Lamar Jackson-led Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. Their only road loss came in a crazy hot weather game in Miami.
My MNF prop card is filled up with a lot of picks that I love.
Jets second-year WR Garrett Wilson will be Aaron Rodgers' go-to target all year long. And it will be on full display in Week 1. This number is just going to increase as the season progresses. Keep in mind, last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Gabe Davis is a full fade versus the Jets' lockdown secondary and if he beats me with a deep ball, so be it. The Jets allowed the fewest yards and catches to WRs last season. Davis went under 45.5 receiving yards in 10 of 17 games last season going 0-2 versus New York. The Dalvin Cook rushing prop sits at 40.5 yards and I just think it's too low for a presumably starter. Note that the lead Jets RB last year - one game Michael Carter, the other Zonovan Knight - both surpassed 70 rushing yards and scored TDs.
- My pick: BUF -2.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- My props: Garrett Wilson over 68.5 receiving yards (-115 BetMGM)
- Gabe Davis under 45.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Dalvin Cook over 40.5 rushing yards (-120 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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