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Jets vs. Colts NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Jets vs. Colts.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 19 of the Colts’ last 22 games.
  • The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season
  • They are 5-2 ATS as an underdog (2-5 overall).
  • The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Colts have lost five of their last six road games.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • In four of the Colts’ last five games as road underdogs, the first score has been a Colts Touchdown.
  • The Jets have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
  • The Jets have lost each of six of their seven games.
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in 16 of their last 21 games. 3-7 ATS this season
  • The Jets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams with winning records.
  • In each of the Jets' last seven games, their opponents have scored last.
  • The Jets have lost their last five road games against opponents on a winning streak.

Totals:

  • Six of the last nine Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Colts’ last 13 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only thrice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (nine starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 1-4 toward the over this season (four straight unders).
  • With Joe Flacco, 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
  • The Colts are 4-1 toward the under in their last five games.
  • Fifteen of the Jets' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jets are 3-2-1 toward the over on the road this season.

Overall:

Shane Steichen had seen enough after two games with Joe Flacco under center. Anthony Richardson is back as QB1 after apparently making massive strides the last two weeks.

Richardson said that he lowkey benefitted from the benching and that he is willing to sacrifice anything for his team. Sure, sounds like a guy motivated to prove a point in Week 11.

Storylines aside, the lines moved in favor of the Jets -4 after it was announced that Richardson was going to start. I couldn't be more opposite of the market. We just saw the Jets get destroyed by a run-heavy Cardinals offense led by a mobile QB. You don't think Steichen won't just do the same thing with Richardson at QB?

New York continues to be a public team that underwhelms. The line moves in their favor every week, and they find ways to disappoint.

And the Colts seem very live here as moderate underdogs to at least cover. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Colts have lost each of their last 11 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points). But this season, they are 5-2 ATS as underdogs in that point spread range from +2 to +5.0 points.

All this team does is play in tight contests. According to Next Gen Stats, the 2024 Colts are the 4th team in NFL history to have each of their first 10 games decided by one possession.

If the Colts can run the football effectively, I think they can keep this game much closer. As I outlined last week, the Colts’ defense has also gotten better with the return of defensive lineman DeForest Buckner.

As for the total, I'm just a slave to the trends. Colts games with Richardson go under. And the Jets are 3-1 toward the under with the one over hitting a massive 43-point total. The 44 points for this matchup is too high.

Props:

The Jets have allowed over 50 rushing yards per game to two of the last three QBs they have faced. The rank 26th in EPA/play allowed against QB scrambles this season.

Richardson has at least 45 rushing yards in his last two games, with his season-long average at 40 yards.

My Picks:

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