Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (10/7)
It feels like it has been a month since the last UFC event. It is rare to turn on ESPN+ at about 6 p.m. on a Saturday and not see a Fight Night card. Luckily, we are back this weekend and have an underrated card with a plethora of value. Let’s see if we can get some winners to the window! Here are all my picks for UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Dawson. Below we dive into Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan.
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Record
- ML: 42-34-2 (+9.30 units)
- Props: 12-30-1 (-1.95 units)
- Parlays: 3-24 (-4.37 units)
- Overall: +2.98 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at these compelling matchups!!!
Joe Pyfer (-410) vs Abdul Razak Alhassan (+320)
Joe Pyfer
- Dist Acc Off: 48.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.25
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: 5.1% (3 KDs out of 58 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 25.5%
- Control % Def: 3.6%
Abdul Razak Alhassan
- Dist Acc Off: 40%
- Dist Att/Min: 7.67
- Dist Def: 62%
- KD%: 4.3% (2 KDs out of 46 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 18.8%
- Control % Def: 39.2%
It is rare to have two fighters with a knockdown rate of 4% or higher face off. What is even more unique is how wide the line in this fight is. Both fighters fight at a plodding pace with respectable distance defense. Pyfer has an obvious offensive control advantage if he takes the fight there. If this fight stays on the feet, then whoever lands first might be the one who wins. MMA is a volatile sport, and in a fight that has two heavy-handed fighters, I will take the underdog.
Bet: Abdul Razak Alhassan (+320) and 1st round KO (+700)
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