John Deere Classic: PGA Best Weekend Picks (2024)

by Matthew MacKay |
Jul 06, 2024

TPC Deere Run has been giving up tons of birdies through the first two rounds of the 2024 John Deere Classic. As a result, the top of the leaderboard is crowded with some impressive scores. C.T. Pan and Aaron Rai are tied for the lead at 14-under-par, with pre-Round 1 betting favorites Davis Thompson, Denny McCarthy, and Sungjae Im sitting T4 at 12-under-par.

The cut line was enforced at -5-under-par, which is simply absurd. A couple of golfers with high hopes still crashed and burned after Thursday and Friday, including Nick Dunlap and Maverick McNealy. Amateur golfer, Luke Clanton, however, continued his hot streak from a strong showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, currently sitting in the T4 logjam after carding 8-under-par in Round 1.

Due to the ideal scoring conditions at TPC Deere Run, the outright winner could make a run from anywhere inside the top 50. This includes two-time JDC winner, Jordan Spieth (T47/-6), while we must mention Hayden Springer’s red-hot 12-under-par outing recorded in Round 1. Springer cooled off substantially in Round 2 by going even par, still sitting at T4 with the other high-performers mentioned.

We’re set up for an exciting finish this weekend, so I’ve found a few of the best golfers to bet on in the outright winner market ahead of Round 3 from Silvis, Illinois. Last week, we hit Cam Davis for the RMC outright win at +2000 before Round 3. Good luck if tailing and let’s cash an outright at the 2024 John Deere Classic!

John Deere Classic: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are 1 unit, 0.50u, and 0.10 units. Or 1%, 0.50%, and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Aaron Rai (+360)

Aaron Rai, one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour in 2024, is ironically the best putter at the John Deere Classic through two rounds. The Englishman ranks first in strokes gained: putting, while also going 6/6 scrambling. Rai has found 30 of 36 greens in regulation, while converting 14 birdies and zero bogeys.

It’s his debut at TPC Deere Run, so we should expect Rai to continue settling in and hunting flagsticks this weekend. Rai is currently the betting favorite at +360 and he should be fueled by his runner-up finish at Detroit Golf Club on Sunday to keep his foot on the gas to contend for his first outright win on the PGA Tour.

Let’s stake a full unit on Rai, especially since his putter, which has been the biggest weakness all season, is suddenly his best asset.

Sungjae Im (+700)

Despite mediocre results at this event in past years, bettors were all over Sungjae Im heading into Round 1. It’s proven to be a solid investment thorugh two rounds. Im ranks third strokes gained: off-the-tee, sixth strokes gained: around-the-green, and 11th in driving accuracy rate.

His putting is outside the top 40 for both strokes gained and putts per GIR, however, the South Korean native has found 29 of 36 greens in regulation, placing himself with ideal lies on the green to convert birdie attempts. It’s working, since Im has 14 birdies, including five across his final seven holes played in Round 2.

One more full unit at 7-1 odds is recommended on Im, who hasn’t won since the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open.

Denny McCarthy (+1000)

Denny McCarthy was another popular outright bet ahead of Round 1, gaining steam following Patrick Cantlay’s withdrawal. McCarthy is well-documented as a prominent golfer on the PGA Tour without a win, losing to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff at Valero earlier this season.

He’s logged back-to-back T6 finishes at the John Deere Classic and is now T4 on the leaderboard at 12-under-par following a strong showing through the first two rounds. Only one bogey is encouraging, plus, McCarthy is ranked third in strokes gained: around-the-green, ninth strokes gained: putting, and top-20 for finding greens in regulation, driving accuracy rate, and scrambling.

At 10-1 odds, we’re still getting good value, as McCarthy got as short as 20-1 before Round 1. Sitting two strokes off the current lead, let’s stake a half unit to return five units of profit on one of the PGA Tour’s best putters.

Brendon Todd (+5000)

Brendon Todd, who recorded a runner-up finish at the 2023 John Deere Classic, has quietly put himself into contention once again at TPC Deere Run this week. He’s T10 on the leaderboard heading into Saturday, carding 5-under-par or lower in both rounds thus far.

Ranked seventh strokes gained: around-the-green and putting, 10th in total birdies (13), and 11th in driving accuracy rate, Todd’s comfort level at this course is clear and obvious. The approach shots and off-the-tee aspects could be tighter, but at 50-1, we’re landing an absolute steal on a three-time PGA Tour winner.

Let’s stake a 0.10 unit wager on Todd to gain five units of profit if he continues to stay hot and sink putts to seize his first outright win in five years.

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros & FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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