Johnathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (2023)
We had an incredible UFC Fight Night card last week!
Bobby Green finally got his moment to shine, and cashing in on it was a perfect way to culminate an extremely underrated card. Green winning and Drew Dober securing a KO/TKO in the first round were our best plays of the card.
Let’s keep the momentum going into this weekend. Here are all of our top picks for UFC Fight Night. Below we dive into Johnathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez.
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Johnathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Record
- ML: 44-36-2 (+11.50 units)
- Props: 13-31-1 (-1.30 units)
- Parlays: 3-25 (-4.87 units)
- Overall: +5.33 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Johnathan Martinez (-112) vs. Adrian Yanez (-108)
Johnathan Martinez
- Dist Acc Off: 55.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.01
- Dist Def: 59%
- KD%: .9% (2 KDs out of 217 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 19.2%
- Control % Def: 9.1%
Adrian Yanez
- Dist Acc Off: 39.4%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.95
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: .9% (2 KDs out of 212 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: .4%
- Control % Def: .6%
This fight will go one of two ways. Either Jonathan Martinez’s accuracy will catch Adrian Yanez, or Yanez’s pressure and volume will overwhelm Martinez. Both fighters have respectable distance defense and are rarely controlled. Yanez is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Rob Font, the first loss of his career. Martinez is on a five-fight winning streak. This is arguably the closest fight on the card. I will lean Martinez. I believe he will land the cleaner, more concise shots.
Bet: Johnathan Martinez (-112)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!