Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears Odds & Game Pick

by Raju Byfield |
Dec 21, 2019

General manager Ryan Pace's biggest mistake will be coming to town as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will step on to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears. Pace famously passed on both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes for struggling quarterback Mitch Trubisky in the 2017 NFL Draft, and he will get to see who could have been his franchise quarterback up close and personal on Sunday. He must have liked what he saw from Mahomes last season, as he hired his offensive coordinator, Matt Nagy, as his new head coach. This contest itself provides little in the way of appeal to casual fans, and will instead be a focus of bettors, fantasy football players, and team fanbases. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at a stunningly low -3.5 points, but it has soared as high as -6, a number that presents considerably less value. With that said, Kansas City still seems like the lean here. Let's see if our analysis backs it up.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -3.5 on the Kansas City Chiefs. The consensus over/under total opened at 44.5 points. The point spread has climbed to -6. The over/under total has held steady at 44.5.
Current Line: Kansas City -6
O/U: 44.5
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
Start Time: 8:20 PM EST, Sunday, December 22nd
Last Meeting: Chicago defeated Kansas City 18-17 - October 11, 2015

See consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Chiefs at Bears >>

Overview

The 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs have clinched their division, and they look to have the third seed all but locked up. They will, of course, need to beat the Bears on Sunday night. But at this point, that seems more like a when, not an if. They have an outside chance at the second seed if they can win their next two games, and the Patriots lose at least one. The Chiefs’ offense has taken a significant step back in 2019, but that can at least partially be blamed on Patrick Mahomes missing action with a dislocated kneecap, and not being back at 100 percent when he did return. The major culprit, however, is the lack of an explosive run game. Damien Williams had a good stretch in 2018, but injuries and a below replacement level effort on the ground have sapped all of his upside. LeSean McCoy has looked good at times, but head coach Andy Reid has introduced load management to the NFL by purposely limiting his veteran's touches, and even going as far as to give him a game off in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs. The Chiefs appear to have an easy win on their hands, but they will need to be careful of falling into the trap of playing down to the level of their opponent, especially when the Bears’ strong defense is taken into account.

The 7-7 Chicago Bears find themselves out of playoff contention in the NFC, and no one is more to blame than Mitch Trubisky. He has shown flashes this season, but the lows have been lower, and the highs not as high when compared to his solid 2018 season. He has regressed across the board, and you can bet Ryan Pace will be evaluating the merits of chasing one of the current starters that may hit free agency this offseason. Quarterback, however, is not where the Bears’ struggles end. David Montgomery has looked terrific at times, but his 3.5 yards per carry is a worse mark than anything Jordan Howard had put up during his career in Chicago. Akiem Hicks missed multiple games and made the Bears defense one to target with the rushing attack. Starting linebackers Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan both find themselves on injured reserve. Trey Burton and Kyle Long have also been lost for the season. It has not been all bad, though, as Allen Robinson appears to be recapturing his pre-injury form, giving the Bears a legitimate offensive piece to build around. The Bears will almost assuredly be playing in front of a raucous home crowd that will be painfully aware that Mahomes was drafted after Trubisky. If you hear a serenade of extra loud boos directed at the Bears’ offense at times throughout the game, that will be why. Chicago has a very tough test against Kansas City, and they will need to find a way to limit the Chiefs’ offense to have any chance at winning this contest.

Trends

Kansas City is 9-5 ATS on the season.
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS on the road this season.
Chicago is 4-10 ATS on the season.
Chicago is 3-4 ATS at home this season.
Kansas City is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests.
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests as a favorite.
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last four December contests.
Chicago is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Chicago is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home contests against teams with winning road records.
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records.
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last six December contests.
Under is 4-0 in Kansas City's last four contests.
Over is 12-5 in Kansas City's last 17 road contests.
Under is 4-0 in Kansas City's last four December contests.
Under is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five contests as a favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Chicago's last eight contests.
Under is 8-2 in Chicago's last 10 home contests.
Under is 6-1 in Chicago's last seven contests against teams with winning records.
Under is 6-1 in Chicago's last seven contests as an underdog.

Prop Bets

Doubles Market Chiefs halftime/Chiefs full game (-125)
With no early week player prop bets worth considering for this week worth considering, we first took a look at the team totals. The 25 point total on the Chiefs offers some value on the over and was strongly considered, but the moneyline on the first half and the full game is the better value. That’s because the Chiefs are playing a team with the third-best scoring defense in the league, at just 18.1 points allowed per game. As mentioned above, there is little doubt as to who is going to win this contest. The Chiefs’ secondary has been surprisingly good this season, and with the Bears running game continuing to struggle, Mitch Trubisky is not going to be able to carry the Bears to a victory. The full game moneyline is as close to a lock as one can get. The halftime moneyline presents more risk, but not enough to ignore being able to hedge our full game action with this prop. Patrick Mahomes has begun to look like he is over the timidness that arose from dealing with a dislocated kneecap, and he should propel the Chiefs to an early lead they never look back from. The Chiefs have scored 17.1 points per game (second-best) in the first half of their contests this season. Chicago has scored just 7.6 (second-worst).

Chiefs first quarter -0.5 (-104)
The juice (-116) for the first quarter line is actually on the Bears at FanDuel. That, coupled with the line being set at just -0.5 on Kansas City, gives some reason for pause. There is little doubt the Chiefs are going to win this contest, but will they win the first quarter as well? The points per first quarter data suggests they should. The Chiefs have scored a ho-hum 5.7 points in their first quarters this season, but the Bears have scored just 2.2. So why has the spread been set at just -0.5? Chicago has allowed the seventh-fewest first-quarter points per game at 3.3. Kansas City has allowed the sixth most at 5.7. That results in a neutral margin for the Chiefs, but a -1.1 margin for the Bears. This suggests that there is still value in this line, even if the win probability is not as high as the full game spread, and the double moneyline prop above. Punch this in as a one-unit play.

Chiefs second quarter -2.5 (-110)
This is the money prop. As you may have noticed from the two other prop plays above, Kansas City scores 17.1 points per game in the first half, the second-best mark in the league, but scores just 5.7 in the opening frame. This results in a league-leading 11.4 points per game in the second quarter of their contests. This is a number that actually jumps to 12.4 on the road. Chicago, on the other hand, scores just 5.4, a mark that ranks as tied for the seventh-lowest in the league. The line of -2.5 is more than fair, even if it is quite high for a contest listed at six points at FanDuel. Vegas rarely lets bettors find a perceptible edge with their lines, but this is one of those times when an offering screams value. Kansas City Chiefs first half at -3.5 has some appeal, but this is the wager with the highest win probability. Lock this one in as a multi-unit play.

Bottom Line

The Kansas City Chiefs are an easy pick for the outright victory in this contest, but with the consensus point spread jumping from -3.5 to -6, there is significantly less value than there was on Sunday evening at its opening line. The Chiefs are the superior team in this contest and have been in better form both straight up and against the spread. The Chiefs are 4-0 in their last four contests against the spread. Chicago is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 contests. The Chicago Bears have lost by eight or more points in each of their contests this season against playoff level teams. The Chiefs are still a strong bet to cover at -6, but some line shopping via our live odds page shows us that BetMGM still has this line at -4.5. As you may have noticed, BetMGM marches to the beat of their own drum as the lone book in our consensus that operates multiple casino properties. The amount and volume they receive offline allows them to offer lines that other books have already moved on from by simply adding a few cents of extra juice, which in turn helps them to profit on any result. Lock this one in as a two-unit play at BetMGM at -4.5.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-120)

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 16

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+10)
New York Giants at Washington (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-7)
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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