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Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers Odds & Game Pick

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In what the schedule makers originally designed as a battle for the AFC West, the 6-4 Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Los Angeles Chargers. In a big blow to an already sometimes suspect defense, the Chiefs recently lost defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah for the season. The Chargers are dealing with injury issues of their own, most notably to star safety Derwin James. James should be ready for the Week 17 matchup between these two teams. The Chiefs have scored a robust 28.4 points per game in the season, a number that jumps to 32.8 points per contest on the road. The Chargers have scored just 20.7 points per game on the season. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -4 on Kansas City. The consensus over/under total opened at 49.5 points. The point spread dropped to -3.5, but has risen back to -4. The over/under total has seen a significant jump to 52 points. 
  • Current Line: Kansas City -4
  • O/U: 52
  • Location: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico 
  • Start Time: 8:15 PM EST, Monday, November 18th
  • Last Meeting: Los Angeles defeated Kansas City 29-28 – November 27, 2017

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Chiefs at Chargers >>

Overview 

The Kansas City Chiefs sit at one of the most disappointing 6-4 records in recent memory. After winning their first four contests, they have dropped four of their last six. Of course, some of this can be traced back to Patrick Mahomes being sidelined with a dislocated knee cap, but their roster holes have been summarily exposed week after week. Their inability to take advantage of Mahomes’ rookie contract window is an utter failure by a front office who was said to be in on the talks for Jalen Ramsey before he was traded by the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have also failed to successfully address the backfield after releasing Kareem Hunt in the middle of last season.

The Chiefs have obvious talent but will have to avoid shocking losses to teams like Indianapolis and Jacksonville if they are to realize their potential this season. Even at 6-4 the Chiefs lead their division and would be a wild card team record-wise. However, this is not what anyone in the organization had in mind when the season started. They will be looking to run the table on the rest of their schedule and will be looking to get things back on track starting with the Los Angeles Chargers. 

The Los Angeles Chargers, who play at a ‘home’ stadium that they constantly see filled with opposing teams fans due to poor local ticket sales, will now be playing a ‘home’ game in Mexico. Los Angeles is a highly disappointing 4-6 on the season. Injuries of the defensive side of the ball have undoubtedly played a part, but before the last four weeks of the season, the offense appeared to be in serious decline. After opening the season with a win over the Indianapolis Colts, they lost five of their next six games. Their only win in that stretch came against the Miami Dolphins. They lost games to struggling teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Tennessee Titans, and the Denver Broncos. The Chargers have the talent to get to 8-8 on the season and hope for a wild card spot. Anything more will take winning one of their remaining two games against the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Trends 

  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Los Angeles. 
  • The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight contests between these two teams. 
  • Over is 2-2 in the last four contests between these two teams. 
  • Kansas City is 5-5 ATS on the season
  • Kansas City is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Los Angeles is 3-5-2 ATS on the season. 
  • Los Angeles is 1-3-1 ATS at home this season.
  • Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Monday contests. 
  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Kansas City is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight November contests. 
  • Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests. 
  • Los Angeles is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests against the AFC. 
  • Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 November contests. 
  • Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Los Angeles is 6-2-1 in their last nine contests following a loss ATS. 
  • Over is 5-1 in Kansas City’s last six Monday contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five contests. 
  • Over is 8-3 in Kansas City’s last 11 contests following a loss ATS. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five November contests. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last seven contests following a straight-up loss.
  • Under is 5-1 in Los Angeles’ last six contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Under is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ last five contests following a loss ATS.
  • Under is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ last five Monday contests. 
  • Under is 7-2 in Los Angeles’ last nine contests. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Los Angeles’ last seven November contests. 

Prop Bets 

Tyreek Hill over 100 yards (-112)
Tyreek Hill has been on fire over the past two weeks. He is averaging 148.5 receiving yards per game in his last two contests. A noted Chargers slayer, Hill posted 107.5 receiving yards per game versus the Chargers last season. With the Chiefs ground game still struggling, the Chiefs are going to be forced to air it out in a contest with a 52 point total. While the total here lacks any true value, it is the player prop with the highest win probability with odds south of -115. PointsBet is an over only book, and this total has more appeal than Hill over 75 yards at -333 or Hill over 125 at just +190. This is a one-unit play.

Bottom Line

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to get back on track on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Chargers. With the teams playing in Mexico City, this game will be a neutral site contest. The talent gap between these two teams necessitates a spread of at least -5 or-5.5, but due to recent form, Vegas has ostensibly tried to protect themselves with an opening line of -4. The early bettors and sharps weren’t fooled, as the line was pushed to -3.5 on the Chiefs early in the week, before moving back to -4. Field conditions could keep the scoring low, but Patrick Mahomes and Phillip Rivers have the weapons to push well past a gaudy over/under total of 52 points. While the Chargers have been in good form recently, especially in their surprising win over the Green Bay Packers, a neutral site victory over the Chiefs is going to be a tall task. Kansas City will be looking to re-establish their dominance in this contest, and after their load management misstep last week, they should have LeSean McCoy active for Week 11. While the -3.5 line was much more appealing, it would be wise to lock the Chiefs in at -4 before the casual money starts to really pour in. 

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-110)

Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 10

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+6.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (+7)
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-9)
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (+4)
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-11.5)
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.