Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds & Game Pick (2020)
Patrick Mahomes versus Lamar Jackson is appointment viewing. The regular season MVP’s of the last two seasons will face off in a battle of giants. The Baltimore Ravens enter this contest as the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +500, with the Chiefs right behind them at +550. The winner of this contest, barring a major injury, will likely be pegged as, and hold as the Super Bowl favorite for the rest of the season. This contest could very well also decide which team ends up in first place in the AFC. The stakes will be high for the best primetime contest we will get all season.
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Overview
The Kansas City Chiefs have gotten off to the 2-0 record that they were looking for, but their narrow overtime victory over the Los Angeles Chargers showed off some of their warts. Kansas City is at their best when they feel forced to score points. Their secondary took a hit this offseason, but rookie L’Jarius Sneed has changed the complexion of the cornerback group. The defense is still going to be their Achilles heel as the Chiefs have exploitable holes outside of stars Tyrann Mathieu, Chris Jones, Dee Ford, and now L’Jarius Sneed. Baltimore should have been their first real test of the season, but the Chargers took that job. Now this potential AFC Championship game preview can help clue us into whether or not the defending champions have what it takes to deal with a Baltimore Ravens team that improved on both sides of the ball this offseason.
The Baltimore Ravens got off to a great 2-0 start. They have looked like the most complete team in football and will get their first real, and perhaps their only real test of the season. Pittsburgh notwithstanding, there is no team on the Ravens schedule, or better yet in the league that can tell the Ravens more about where they are at as a team than the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are also much improved on offense, and the Ravens will need to find a way to stop the run while letting their Pro Bowl level cornerback trio go to work against the pass. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens are able to respond if they fall behind by 10 or more points. A lot will be revealed about both teams in this matchup.
Trends
- Chiefs 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records
- Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with winning records
- Over is 5-1 in the Chiefs last six contests as a road underdog
- Under is 5-1 in the Ravens last six contests as a home favorite
Prop Bets
Ravens over 27.5 points (-139)
The Baltimore Ravens team total is a prop to chase all season, especially at BetMGM where you can pay extra juice for a more favorable number. 28 points on a defense that allowed 20 points to a struggling Houston Texans offense should be a relatively easy hit. The only way this goes under the number is if Lamar Jackson and the Ravens fumble the game away, literally. It will take an excessive number of turnovers for the Chiefs to keep the Ravens under 28 points on Monday Night Football. Both teams will be looking to impose their wills via the run, but at heart, these are two explosive offenses who like to score more than controlling the clock. We could see some extended drives, but we could also see some quick scores to balance it out. Ravens over 28 against the Chiefs is riskier than it would be against more teams, but the win probability remains with the over.
Final Thoughts
The over is the easy play. Generally, when dealing with totals with these two teams the team totals are much more attractive because depending on their opponents to put up their share off the points needed to hit the over is the real bet. However, with these two teams involved that risk is reduced dramatically. While they have not been the highest-scoring teams in the league by the numbers, we all know that these are the two most explosive teams in reality. In a contest where one or both teams could hit 40 points, take the over. Baltimore could clamp down on Kansas City, but the Chiefs are going to have a whale of a time trying to stop the Ravens offense unless of course, they can build a large first-half lead. The under has been the trend in the Ravens recent contests, but welcoming an explosive offense like the Chiefs to town will likely change that.
This contest comes down to a dealer’s choice. The initial line was set at the -3 typically assigned to home teams in contests Vegas sees as even. Two of the best teams in football squaring off is always going to make handicapping tougher, as there are very few definitive leans to stand on, especially when the defending champions are the underdogs. If the odds were flipped, the Ravens and the points would be the easy play. They looked like the better team for much of last season, and that was with an inferior team on both sides of the ball. However, the Chiefs are more equipped to succeed regardless of gamescript. Playing from behind proved to be the Ravens undoing last season, so if they fall behind in this one, we should be able to learn a lot about the Ravens chances this season. The -3.5 is the issue here, so if you are not comfortable with buying a point or lean the Chiefs altogether, take them. However, the suggestion here is to suffer the extra juice and take Baltimore at -2.5 at -149 at BetMGM.
Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-149) & Over 54.5 (-110)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.