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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos NFL Sports Betting Guide

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Two teams heading in opposite directions face off Thursday night when the Chiefs travel to Mile High to take on the Broncos. The Chiefs have lost two straight, both at home, while the Broncos have won two straight after starting 0-4. Concerns over Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury have kept this line a lot closer than many expected.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Chiefs -4; O/U 50. The line has moved in the Broncos’ favor, and toward the under.
  • Current Line: Chiefs -3.5
  • O/U: 49
  • Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
  • Start Time: 8:20 pm ET
  • Television: FOX/NFL
  • Last Meeting: October 28, 2018 – The Chiefs defeated the Broncos 30-23 at Mile High.

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Overview

What is going on with the Kansas City Chiefs? They just lost two home games to the Colts and Texans and were very nearly knocked off by the Lions three weeks ago. Have their weaknesses been exposed? One thing is certain, the Chiefs’ run defense is not good. They’re currently third-worst in the NFL giving up 161.8 yards per game. Because of how bad the defense has been against the run, the ball has rarely been in the offense’s hands in recent weeks, which is preventing them from getting into the rhythm we expected to see before the season began.

But the run defense isn’t the only concern. Patrick Mahomes is suffering from an ankle injury that has prevented him from looking like the MVP we saw in Week 1 through Week 4. His stat line has been solid, but he hasn’t looked like his usual self. Last week, the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-3 lead and everything looked great, but then Mahomes re-aggravated his ankle and the Chiefs scored just once in the final three quarters of their loss.

A bad rush defense is music to the Broncos’ ears. They’re in the middle of the league in terms of rushing yards per game, but offer up a two-headed attack in Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman that should be able to find plenty of running room against the weak Chiefs’ defensive line. In their two-game winning streak, the Broncos have rushed for over 100 yards in both games, including 191 against the Chargers.

Another thing that has been consistent for the Broncos as they attempt to turn their season around has been turnovers on the defensive end. Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, the Broncos forced zero turnovers and found themselves losing heartbreaking games. Since then, they have forced six turnovers, three each in Week 5 and 6. With Mahomes fighting through his injury, the Broncos should get chances to cause game-changing turnovers.

Trends

  • The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS and SU in their last 10 versus Denver.
  • The over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 matchups between KC and DEN.
  • Both teams are 3-3 ATS this season.
  • The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in their last seven versus Denver.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Denver.
  • The total has gone under in 13 of Denver’s last 15 games.
  • The total has gone under in nine of Denver’s last 10 home games.

Prop Bet

Travis Kelce Touchdown (+120)
Denver’s defense has been great against tight ends so far this season, only giving up one touchdown to them all year. But Travis Kelce is a different beast. With Mahomes’ ankle slowing him down, I expect him to look for his most reliable weapons, which of course includes Kelce. The Broncos’ defense doesn’t give up many big plays, but the Chiefs should be able to move against them. Every time they’re in the red zone, which should be often, Mahomes will be looking Kelce’s way.

Bottom Line

This is such a weird line. I have to think the public is going to be all over the Chiefs, and Vegas surely knows that, so why are they only favored by a field goal? The Broncos are on a two-game winning streak, and they seem like they should have a better record than they do, but the Chiefs should still be Super Bowl contenders. As weird as it sounds, the Chiefs are a little desperate. They need this game to right the ship. Phillip Lindsay should be able to run all over the Chiefs’ defense, but Mahomes should be able to jump out to an early lead that the Broncos don’t have the offensive firepower to come back from.

Pick: Chiefs -3.5 (+110)

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.