Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds & Game Pick (2020)

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in what should be a heated divisional battle. The two teams looked to be heading in different directions this season in Week 1, with the Chiefs looking the part of the Super Bowl favorites and the Chargers looking like a team that just lost its best player. However, being a divisional matchup means all bets and traditional logic can be thrown out the window. These are two teams that know each other very well, and that familiarity often plays an unquantifiable factor in the outcome and final scores of these games. 

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Overview

The Kansas City Chiefs unveiled their new-look offense in Week 1 and looked as complete on the offensive side of the ball as they have since Kareem Hunt was released from the team. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has provided a huge spark in the run game, but they have also seen some inspired play from fourth-round pick L'Jarius Snead. The Chiefs have yet to unleash one of their other prized rookies from the 2020 NFL Draft class in Willie Gay Jr. Nicknamed turbo by his teammates for playing hard and fast on every play, Gay is a linebacker eventually expected to man the middle for the defending champions. The Chiefs could very well steamroll the Chargers this week but will need to be careful not to play down to the level of their competition.

The Los Angeles Chargers looked horrible in Week 1. The defense had its obvious bright spots in the front seven, and the four corner package (with Desmond King at safety) had some success against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the offense struggled. Tyrod Taylor looked overmatched once again as an NFL starter, and it may not be long before the leash gets pulled and Justin Herbert is inserted under center. However, a season-ending hip injury to starting center Mike Pouncey may make the Chargers think twice about turning to Herbert at all this season. Pouncey combined with the laughable Trai Turner trade has left the Chargers interior offensive line in shambles. Losing Derwin James already put a club with championship aspirations behind the eight ball, but if they cannot get passable quarterback play they are going to have no chance at beating the NFL's elite like the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Trends

• Chiefs are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 contests overall
• Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests as a road favorite
• Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five contests against teams with winning records
• Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six contests against the AFC West
• Over is 4-1 in Chargers last five contests overall
• Over is 4-0 in the Chiefs last four contests against the AFC
• Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams

Prop Bets

Clyde Edwards-Helaire 72.5 rushing yards (-111)
This seems like a simple, no need for explanation prop, but we will dig a little anyways. Clyde Edwards-Helaire showed off the great cutting ability and contact balance that made him a first-round pick in Week 1, and had the Chiefs offense firing on all cylinders. His 4.3 yards after contact per attempt represents a higher yards per carry than Derrick Henry posted in Week 1. His 138 rushing yards led the NFL after one week of the season. The Chargers allowed Joe Mixon, in a sputtering offense to rush for 69 yards in Week 1. CEH is not quite the talent of a Mixon, but he fits the Chiefs offense like a glove and plays on a team that forces opponents to respect the run as opposed to being able to load the box to stop the run. Tap the over at BetMGM. 

Final Thoughts

Kansas City has been a cover machine recently. They are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 contests overall and are still locked in on the road going 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests as a road favorite. They should have a relatively easy time with the Chargers as long as they can prevent the deadly pass rush from causing too much havoc. Nine points is higher than one would like for a divisional matchup but it is impossible to tap the Chargers here. Chiefs with the spread.

The over/under is the more difficult, possibly because I am not great at full game combined totals. Give me the Chiefs team total and I’ll hit. Ask me to comfortably project a team like the Chargers scoring 'x' amount of points and I cannot. Being under averse also doesn’t help matters as the under actually hits at a higher rate. Lines are set the way they are for a reason, so the house wins, and favorite and over bettors would do well to remember that. 

With that being said, I am still team over for this contest. We all know Kansas City could score 48 points by themselves if they wanted to. The question here is how vanilla do the Chiefs go against a weak opponent, and how willing will they be to lean on the run and potentially put up fewer points. The under is the sharp play given how bad Los Angeles looked in Week 1, but trends like the over being 4-1 in Chargers last five contests overall, and the over being 4-0 in the Chiefs last four contests against the AFC makes the over the lean for one unit. 

Picks: Chiefs -8.5 (-111) & over 47.5 (-111)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.