Kansas vs. Arkansas: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Arkansas.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Kansas vs. Arkansas

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Kansas vs. Arkansas

Kansas 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

It's always hard to live up to expectations when you’re ranked No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll, but Kansas seriously has disappointed this season.

The Jayhawks have one of the weirdest offenses in the country, with the 275th-ranked rim-and-three rate. They settle for inefficient midrange looks and rarely get to the charity stripe, with the 355th-ranked free throw rate in the nation. It's tough to trust this team after it blew a big lead vs. Houston and almost lost to UCF in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.

Still, it's hard to doubt Bill Self, and every team has a clean slate come March. Dajuan Harris and K.J. Adams are champions, Zeke Mayo is dangerous from deep, Hunter Dickinson is one of the best bigs in the land, and Rylan Griffen slots in well. There was a reason why this team had such high aspirations before the season.

It really does appear that the Kansas offense is what will hold this team back. Over the last month, Kansas ranks 37th overall and 56th offensively, per Bart Torvik. That's behind teams such as UC San Diego and Northwestern. in that same time frame. Their defense has been solid with a top-15 opponent eFG%, and their wins over Michigan State and Duke could not have aged better.

But when push comes to shove, this is not a team I trust late in games, despite Self's coaching ability. It won't be a surprise to see Kansas find the level they've been searching for since December, but it won't be a surprise if they experience an early exit, either.

Arkansas 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Arkansas is one of the tougher teams to predict this March as a team with a lot of talent and a lot of experience with a coach from the dark ages who doesn't run an efficient and analytically sound offense, ranking 66th in Shot Quality efficiency. If Arkansas is going to win, it will be from their defense.

Ranking in the top-25 on KenPom, the Razorbacks’ defense across the board has been solid the entire year. They don't foul much, limit second-chance opportunities, and force turnovers at an above-average clip. They've faced the 13th toughest offensive SOS and had some hopes in the preseason. It doesn't help much that two of their best players – Adou Thiero and Boogie Fland – are hurt and limit their offensive movement and ability to get to the charity stripe. Zvonimi Ivisic, or Big Z , is a 7'2 monster that can score from deep and rebound at a high clip. Johnell Davis obviously has his experience in the tournament and is a composed guard with DJ Wagner adding to the team and his remarkably high minutes.

John Calipari has taken teams deep into the tournament before but not anytime since 2019. Time has passed him up and I wouldn't expect him to win a battle in the trenches with a close game. Arkansas also ranks 345th in the paper tiger metric, per Haslametrics meaning they don't play up to higher competition. It's tough as they came from the SEC and only faced good teams really, but their sub-200 ranked SOS out of the conference give me pause for a deep run by the Razorbacks.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Kansas vs. Arkansas

The NCAA Tournament selection committee has gifted us with Bill Self vs. John Calipari in the first round. What a turn of events after both programs severely underperformed this season relative to expectations. Either way, one of these legendary coaches will suffer a first-round exit. One thing's for sure, it will be an intense and defensive-minded game to keep scoring low. Kansas ranks 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while leading the Big 12 in two-point defense and effective field-goal percentage against. Arkansas' strength is also on defense, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency with a top-10 block rate. The Razorbacks boast multiple bigs to send at Hunter Dickinson, whom the Jayhawks' offense flows through. Meanwhile, Arkansas' offense has been inconsistent all year and is still dealing with the absence of Adou Thiero. Don't be surprised at some lengthy scoring droughts from both teams in this rock fight of a first-round game.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Kansas vs. Arkansas

Under 145.5 (-110)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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