Kansas vs. Cal Baptist: NCAA Tournament Picks & Odds

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Cal Baptist.

2026 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Kansas vs. Cal Baptist

Let’s dive into our top NCAA Tournament picks and predictions for this opening-round matchup.

2026 NCAA Tournament Preview: Kansas vs. Cal Baptist

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Kansas 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Bill Self’s team arrives in March at 23-10 with a resume that is stronger than the metrics suggest. Kansas has nine Quad 1 wins, putting the Jayhawks in a group of only 10 teams nationally that can say the same. Their combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 record compares favorably to teams sitting multiple seed lines above them.

The problem the metrics have flagged all season is the offense. KenPom has Kansas ranked 52nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and this is the third straight year the Jayhawks have failed to crack the top 50. That has historically translated to early exits, and Kansas has not gotten out of the first weekend in any of the last three tournaments. The Big 12 Tournament did nothing to quiet those concerns. Against TCU in the quarterfinals, potential No. 1 NBA Draft pick Darryn Peterson scored 24 points but went 5-for-17 from the field, doing most of his damage at the charity stripe.

Against Houston in the semis, the Jayhawks were blown out 69-47, averaging just 0.79 points per possession, their worst output all year. Peterson has delivered nine 20+ games, but he needs a clean shooting night to carry this team, and those nights are not guaranteed. His effort has also been called into question, as he's been known to miss games or play ineffectively through injuries, leaving the rotation disjointed. Looking at on/off numbers, the Jayhawks have actually been better without him in adjusted efficiency metrics. But Peterson is still a hooper who needs to elevate this team if Self and Co. expect to make a deep run.

Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Flory Bidunga can be a difference-maker. The 6-foot-10 sophomore is a transformational rim presence with an excellent plus-minus. When Bidunga avoids foul trouble, the defense holds up against anyone. Tre White provides floor spacing with his 42% perimeter shooting and senior toughness, while Melvin Council runs the point with an efficient assist rate. The bench depth behind the top four is thin.

It doesn't seem like anything is working well for Kansas of late. The Jayhawks have ranked 49th since February 14th. They do have the No. 1 strength of schedule in all of hoops, preparing them for March, but their offensive inconsistencies are serious red flags. Peterson is good enough to win games on his own. If he shoots well and Bidunga stays out of trouble, Self has the pieces to win games. If neither happens, it will be a fourth straight early exit.

Cal Baptist 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Cal Baptist began its transition from a Division II school in 2018 and became eligible for the NCAA Tournament in the 2022-23 season. Three years later, Dominique Daniels Jr. hit three straight threes in the final two minutes to erase a seven-point deficit and beat Utah Valley 63-61, delivering the program its first-ever NCAA Tournament bid and capping the final WAC Tournament before the conference rebrands. The story of the championship game is worth savoring.

Daniels, the WAC Player of the Year, was 4-of-22 with two minutes left. Then he made three in a row, including the go-ahead pull-up with 15 seconds left, and the Lancers held on. That kind of shot-making resilience is exactly what you need in March. Over the course of the season, Daniels averaged well north of 20 points and set a program record with 47 points in a regular-season win over the same Utah Valley team in January.

Jayden Jackson is the second option, knocking down five threes for 19 points in the semifinal against Utah Tech. That, along with Martel Williams' near 13 points a game in the backcourt, is most of their offense. They rebound misses at a top-15 clip but rank outside of the top 300 in effective field goal rate overall. They can obviously get hot, but are capable of going ice cold as well. Defensively, they are a top-50 unit nationally, with the 15th-best defensive effective field goal rate against them.

Opponents get nothing from the arc, with the sixth-fewest percentage of points coming from deep for those that play the Lancers. Their top-25 near-proximity defense with two 6-foot-10 bodies in the paint, and Daniels' ability to microwave, gives them the capacity to keep games close when moving up in competition.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Kansas vs. Cal Baptist

After winning the WAC auto bid, Cal Baptist is live for the upset over Kansas in this first-round matchup. The Jayhawks ended the regular season on a down note, going 3-4 over the final seven games. Then, they lost by 22 points to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals. Kansas boasts a top-10 defense and the potential No. 1 NBA pick in Darryn Peterson, but it's also susceptible to an early exit in the bracket.

Cal Baptist, meanwhile, will be a tough out. The Lancers bring in a top-50 defense that's been elite at defending the three-pointer. They also have a stud scorer to lean on offensively in Dominique Daniels Jr. Notably, Cal Baptist went 7-3 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this year, including 3-1 ATS against power-conference teams.