Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita: UFC Fight Night Odds & Picks (10/7)
It feels like it has been a month since the last UFC event. It is rare to turn on ESPN+ at about 6 p.m. on a Saturday and not see a Fight Night card. Luckily, we are back this weekend and have an underrated card with a plethora of value. Let’s see if we can get some winners to the window! Here are all my picks for UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Dawson. Below we dive into Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita.
UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita
Record
- ML: 42-34-2 (+9.30 units)
- Props: 12-30-1 (-1.95 units)
- Parlays: 3-24 (-4.37 units)
- Overall: +2.98 units
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.
We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at these compelling matchups!!!
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-155) vs. Diana Belbita (+130)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.33
- Dist Def: 68%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 266 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 22.7%
- Control % Def: 7.9%
Diana Belbita
- Dist Acc Off: 40.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 22.15
- Dist Def: 59%
- KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 332 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 7.5%
- Control % Def: 30.7%
Karolina has several advantages in this fight that give her a direct path to victory. She is a more accurate distance strike, a better defensive fighter at a distance, and has a formidable offensive control game. Belbita fights at a torrid pace and can impose her will, but it could be a long night if she doesn’t get Karolina out of there. Karolina has several paths to victory.
Bet: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-155)
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