Kentucky vs. Troy: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Kentucky vs. Troy.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Kentucky vs. Troy

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Kentucky vs. Troy

Kentucky 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

Previewing Kentucky's NCAA Tournament outlook starts with health. Kerr Kriisa has been out after playing just nine games, Jaxon Robinson is done for the year, and now Lamont Butler is dealing with an ailment that kept him out of the SEC Tournament, where Kentucky got cooked by Alabama. This is a deep squad, but it will get thin fast if Butler remains out with Robinson already sidelined.

Still, this is a dangerous tournament team. The Kentucky offense is one of the most fun units to watch in the country and proved troublesome for some of the best defenses in the nation (looking at you, Duke). The Wildcats faced the third-toughest strength of schedule and still managed a top-20 effective field goal shooting percentage. Koby Brea is one of the best shooters in the nation, and Otega Oweh is a capable scorer at all levels, with Amari Williams a dominant force down low with the fifth-highest defensive rebound rate in the nation.

Kentucky will need to limit additional looks to opponents, because the Wildcats’ defense might hold them back. Ranking outside the top 50, Kentucky won't force turnovers and doesn't exactly stifle teams down low, allowing opponents to shoot 58% near the rim, ranking 150th in that department. Since Feb. 15, they've been more well-rounded, with a top-30 offense and defense, but that is almost more concerning. If their elite offense doesn't show up, their ceiling has a clear cap on it.

Head coach Mark Pope got the Kentucky job because of his effective work at BYU. He has yet to prove himself in the tournament, but this team features some of the most experienced players in the land. Lamont Butler went to the finals with San Diego State. Jaxson Robinson — despite being out — knows what it takes to reach an Elite 8. Koby Brea is coming off a tournament appearance last year with Dayton.

If there's a team I trust to show up and play its best game in March, it's Kentucky. With their injuries and lack of elite defense, it will be a question of how far the Wildcats can go, but they will be a tough out at the very least.

Troy 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Troy Trojans are poised for the NCAA Tournament under head coach Scott Cross, who has guided the program to four straight 20-win campaigns. The team is built around two dynamic guards: Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Tayton Conerway, a stat sheet stuffer who has posted elite numbers in scoring efficiency, assists, and steals.

Myles Rigsby took a step back from his perimeter shooting in his freshman campaign but still gets to the charity stripe at a top-25 rate nationally. The frontcourt features rim protector Jackson Fields and Thomas Dowd, who have led Troy to a top-20 near-proximity defense and one of the best offensive rebounding clips in the nation.

Coach Cross is renowned for his hellacious preseason boot camp that transforms his roster into a tough, relentless group which translates directly to their top-75 defense. They have depth to run with teams but pure bucket getters might be a problem. The Trojans shoot just north of 30 percent from deep, a bottom 30 clip in DI.

They also rank poorly in Haslametrics’ “Paper Tiger” metric, as they have failed to step up in class when they face any top-50 team. Arkansas, Oregon, and Houston all won with ease and their only top-100 wins came against Arkansas State. It’s hard to see Troy going far without much perimeter scoring but crazier things have happened.

If they lean on their ability to convert second-chance looks with their top-10 offensive rebounding percentage and depend on their interior defense, there is a path for Scott Cross to find a first round victory for Troy.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Kentucky vs. Troy

Off the bat, the Kentucky Wildcats expect Lamont Butler to be available for this game against Troy. Of course, Butler has experience in the NCAA Tournament during his time with the San Diego State Aztecs. He's currently the third-leading scorer on the Wildcats but left Thursday's game against Oklahoma early with an injury. That said, with or without Butler, the Wildcats are one of the best offenses in the nation. Kentucky has shot a 56% effective field goal percentage and has limited turnovers to 15.2%. Meanwhile, the Wildcats haven't been elite on the offensive glass, but that could change against Troy, as the Trojans have given up 32% of offensive rebounds. On the other hand, the Trojans are terrific on the offensive glass and usually see the foul line often. However, this isn't a great matchup for Troy. The Wildcats have kept teams to 25.9% of offensive rebounds per game this season. Plus, Troy has nailed only 30.3% from downtown, despite taking threes at a super-high rate. Kentucky has limited opponents to only 30.8% from deep this season. Therefore, take Kentucky to earn a win and cover against the Trojans.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Kentucky vs. Troy

Kentucky -10.5 (-110)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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