Kings vs. Mavericks NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions (Wednesday)
The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks battle it out in the second game of Wednesday’s NBA Play-In Tournament to determine who will earn the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and keep their quest alive in the NBA playoffs.
Below are some of our top NBA Play-In Tournament picks and prop bets for Wednesday, April 16th’s contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Play-In Tournament Picks & Predictions
Mavericks +4.5 (-110)
The Dallas Mavericks still made the NBA Play-In Tournament despite all the injuries and transactions made in the second half of the season. The Mavericks traded away Luka Doncic and brought in Anthony Davis in a blockbuster trade. However, as soon as Davis played with the Mavericks, he got injured and missed some time. As Davis was recovering, Kyrie Irving got hurt and is out for the season with a torn ACL.
The Mavericks had the makings of a championship contender. Now they’ll need to find a way to win two games in the NBA Play-In Tournament to earn a playoff spot in the first round against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Yet, the Mavericks’ front office has no regrets.
Dallas has already lost three times to the Kings this season. The most recent loss came on March 3rd when the Mavericks fell 122-98 to the Kings at home. But to be fair, that was the exact game where Irving tore his ACL just minutes into the game. In addition, the Mavericks didn’t have Anthony Davis healthy. All the life was sucked out of the Mavericks in that game.
They’ll respond tonight.
Dallas should be able to find offense against a Kings defense that has allowed a 56.1% effective field goal percentage. The Kings are good on the defensive glass but are below average in every other major defensive category.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have limited opponents to a 54.2% effective field goal percentage. Dallas invested in Davis for his defense, which Doncic didn’t deliver. Expect the Mavericks to play much better defense and limit the Kings. After all, the Kings have only shot a 54.9% effective field goal percentage with 28.2% of offensive rebounds. Both rates are slightly below average.
I’ll ride the Mavericks +4.5.
-Jason Radowitz
P.J. Washington Less Than 5.5 Three-Point Attempts
In seven games with Anthony Davis, P.J. Washington has averaged 3.2 three-point attempts per game and has only had six or more in one game. The Kings rank 19th, allowing 38.2 three-point attempts per game. Washington did have nine attempts against the Kings in December, but that was before Davis’ arrival and in a game Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic didn’t play.
-Paul Edgington
Zach LaVine Less Than 8.5 Three-Point Attempts
The two games Zach LaVine played against the Mavericks this season were with the Kings, where he attempted six and five threes. Since being dealt to Sacramento in February, LaVine has only attempted nine or more threes in eight out of 32 games.
Malik Monk will miss this game, but that doesn’t seem to impact LaVine in this area much, as he has only exceeded this number in three out of nine games. Dallas ranks fourth in three-point attempts allowed (35.4 per game).
-Paul Edgington
Keegan Murray Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-120)
I'm not obsessed with the idea of betting unders in the playoffs; I just have to have a little fun. I didn't exactly expect Keegan Murray to be the hill I die on, but here we are. It's a surprise Dallas is in this position at all, honestly, but their metrics still aren't promising. Their defense has ranked 24th since the All-Star break, and they have still sustained a top-seven pace in the league.
It's the perfect spot for Murray at home, where he's been performing better. Also, for a sustained two months, he's been scoring 13 points with almost six boards a night. That's plenty of leeway for a line set at 16.5 in a pace-up spot against a weak defense that is the second-worst rebounding team in the league.
-Ryan Coleman
Anthony Davis Under 43.5 Points + Assists + Rebouds (-122)
As a bonus fourth bet, I'm fading the Mavericks center to show up in his first playoff game in the blue and silver. Anthony Davis is still dealing with a left adductor strain and is a hard player to trust with eight games over his last two months.
The books expect Davis to evolve tonight in some way based on his averages with Dallas. While Sacramento's defense isn't anything to write home about, they will also slow the Mavs down. Davis also performs worse on the road, so I don't expect to sweat this one much.
-Ryan Coleman
First Basket Scorer: Klay Thompson (+900)
To start the second NBA Play-In Tournament matchup, it’ll be Anthony Davis of the Mavericks facing off against Domantas Sabonis of the Sacramento Kings. Sabonis has won the tip in only 28% of games this season, while Davis has won the tip in 58% of games.
In addition, the Mavericks have scored first 56% of the time this season, while the Kings have enjoyed the first basket in only 51% of games. However, Sabonis has still won the tip three out of four times against Davis, so that’s something to think about. Still, the analytics and stats favor Davis winning the tip and the Mavericks earning the first shot attempt.
Ultimately, the Kings have allowed the first basket to shooting guards 28% of the time and centers 25% of the time. We’ll want to attack those two positions. The Mavericks will use Klay Thompson at shooting guard and Dereck Lively II at center.
Thompson has only scored the first basket six times this season. However, he’s added the first field goal attempt in 29% of games this season, which is the most of any player expected on the floor to start. Thompson will likely have the first chance to score for the Mavericks. Let’s roll with him at +900 odds.
-Jason Radowitz
Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings Same-Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Mavericks +4.5 (-105)
- Leg 2: Domantas Sabonis 14+ Rebounds (-130)
- Leg 3: Anthony Davis 26+ Points (-120)
You have to credit the Mavericks. With the Luka Doncic trade and all of the injuries, they could have packed it in and prepared for the offseason. This group stayed resilient, and with Anthony Davis’ return, they might have the spark to go further than expected.
If they are going to win, they need to speed up the tempo, move the ball around and get Sacramento off-balance on defense. Directly at the rim and from three are the Kings’ biggest defensive weaknesses. Davis can have a big game on the boards and keep Klay Thompson behind the arc against the worst three-point defense in the league.
Dallas will need to tighten its defense at half-court because the Kings will live at the perimeter. This offense will run through Damontas Sabonis on the post, and he'll either take the shot himself or try to create shots for DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.
It will be difficult to guard someone like Sabonis because of his versatility. He's great at moving around to create mismatches, can shoot from long range and is one of the best rebounders, having just led the league for the third straight year.
The Kings might not have the home advantage by dropping six of their last 10. Still, with already sweeping the Mavericks during the regular season and this group playing with each other longer than the Mavericks, the Kings have a good chance of moving on in the NBA Play-In Tournament, but Dallas could make this one tight.
Parlay Odds: +533
-John Supowitz