Lakers vs. Grizzlies ATS Pick for 2/25 (Sports Betting)

The Lakers look to get back on track as they take on the lowly Grizzlies Monday night.

Current Form

Lakers
The Lakers continue to be wildly inconsistent in their pursuit of a playoff spot. Los Angeles followed a big win against Houston with a disheartening loss to New Orleans. LeBron James expressed considerable frustration after the defeat. Per Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times, he said the team needs to “get out of our comfort zone” and “have that sense of urgency from the jump, and not be afraid to go out and actually fail.” Sitting three games behind the Clippers for the final playoff spot, the Lakers can’t afford to keep losing to inferior teams. They will play this game on one day’s rest (14-20 record in such situations).

Grizzlies
The Grizzlies whimper into tonight’s matchup reeling from a four-game losing streak. The team remains top-heavy in the wake of a roster overhaul. Mike Conley, Jonas Valanciunas, and Delon Wright have been burdened with carrying the team on a nightly basis. The rest of the rotation is comprised of over-the-hill veterans and unproven young players who only contribute sporadically. This will be the Grizzlies’ third game in four days. Furthermore, Memphis is 13-26 when playing on one day’s rest.

Edge: Lakers
Coming off an embarrassing loss and James’ subsequent call-out, the Lakers will play with a renewed sense of energy. The schedule should make Memphis and its paper-thin rotation the far more fatigued side.

Statistical Breakdown

Lakers
Unlike most LeBron-led teams, the Lakers do not excel in scoring from the three-point line. Los Angeles is 20th in three-pointers made per game and are 27th in three-point percentage (33.8).

Instead, Los Angeles scores most of its points in the paint. The team’s three leading scorers, James, Kyle Kuzma, and Brandon Ingram, all have games predicated on scoring inside. The Lakers thus rank second in percentage of points from in the paint (50.1) and points in the paint per game (56.2). Additionally, they utilize their superior athletes and passing by playing at the NBA’s fourth-fastest pace (103.93). Currently, the Lakers are second in percentage of points from fast breaks (16.8) and third in fast-break points per game (18.8).

Los Angeles has actually been more consistent on the defensive end. Despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, the Lakers have maintained the 12th-best defensive rating (108.4) in the NBA. Los Angeles does an excellent job of defending two-point shots, ranking fifth in opponent two-point percentage (50.2) and fourth in opponent non-blocked two-point percentage (55.1). The Lakers also do a great job of defending without fouling. They rank sixth in personal fouls per defensive play (17.4%).

Grizzlies
Even after undergoing a roster shakeup before the trade deadline, Memphis has maintained the same deliberate style of basketball. The Grizzlies continue to play at an extremely slow pace (23rd) and score through the execution of their half-court sets. Over the last seven games, Memphis is 11th in percentage of points from two-pointers (56), sixth in percentage of points from mid-range (12.8), and sixth in percentage of points from free throws (18.2). Unfortunately, this style has been ineffective. During this stretch, Memphis ranks 26th in offensive rating (105.3) and 27th in effective field goal percentage (49.2).

Losing Marc Gasol has significantly impacted the defense. With Gasol as their anchor, the Grizzlies had a top-five defensive rating. In the seven games without him, their defensive rating has slipped to 13th (110.4). Gasol was the team’s defensive quarterback and without him, Memphis is often scrambling and confused. This is evident in the way its transition defense has deteriorated in his absence. Over the last seven games, Memphis ranks 28th in opponent fast-break points per game (21.1).

Edge: Lakers
The Lakers will be a difficult matchup for the Grizzlies. The disparity in pace will favor the Lakers, as Memphis doesn’t have the depth to keep up in a track meet. The Grizzlies also don’t have the type of wing defenders to slow down James, Ingram, or Kuzma. All three of those Lakers will parade into the paint all night long.

Los Angeles will have no problem scoring against Memphis’ weak transition defense. Conversely, the Grizzlies and their two-point-oriented offense will struggle to score against the Lakers’ stingy two-point defense. Lastly, the Lakers’ ability to play defense without fouling will limit the Grizzlies’ scoring opportunities from the free-throw line.

Line Analysis

The line for this game opened at -5 Los Angeles. Despite the Lakers receiving 79% of public betting action on their spread, it has moved down half a point to -4.5. The reverse line movement indicates that sharp bettors found value in the Grizzlies’ opening line and decided to back them. Both of these teams have struggled against the spread this year, as Memphis is 26-35 ATS and Los Angeles is 25-32-2.

Edge: Grizzlies
With the linemakers struggling to price either team, the Grizzlies get the edge here thanks to the sharp’s backing.

Verdict: Lakers

Even though the sharp bettors have initially sided with Memphis, Los Angeles is still the clear side to back tonight. The Lakers’ offensive style will exploit the Grizzlies’ defensive weaknesses. Conversely, their ability to effectively defend two-point shots and play defense without fouling will hinder the Grizzlies’ offensive attack. Los Angeles desperately needs a win to stay in the playoff race. Take the Lakers at -4.5, as they should step on the Grizzlies’ throats from the opening tip.