Navigate

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick (2021)

by |

The first of two NFL games scheduled for Saturday evening features a massive AFC matchup between two teams trying to stay in playoff contention. The Las Vegas Raiders will be trying to rebound from a horrible loss last week when they face the Cleveland Browns. Of course, the Browns have been in the headlines beyond the NFL betting realm due to numerous players landing in virus protocols this week. There is even some speculation that this game may be postponed. For now, it remains on as scheduled, albeit with a massive shift in the betting odds.

View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>

Details

Opening Lines: Browns -5; O/U 44
Current Lines: Raiders -4; O/U 37.5
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium — Cleveland, OH
Start Time: 4:30 p.m. EDT
TV: NFL Network
Last Meeting: November 1, 2020 — The Raiders defeated the Browns 16-6 in Cleveland.

Overview

Last week, the Raiders learned the hard way that huddling on the opposing team’s logo before a game can come back to bite you. For the second time this season, Las Vegas was blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs. It marked the Raiders’ fifth loss in the last six games and now has them facing an uphill battle in the AFC playoff race. Of course, there are very few teams in the NFL that can exploit the depleted Las Vegas secondary to the same degree as Kansas City. No matter who is under center for Cleveland on Saturday, the Raiders should be able to keep things contained. The real question is whether or not the offense will show up.

After being in the MVP conversation early in the season, Derek Carr has fizzled out. Although he still ranks near the top of the league in total passing yards, it has been a very ugly stretch for the Raiders’ offense. They have been held under 20 points in five of the last six games. It comes as no surprise that all five of those games were losses. Las Vegas has been losing the time of possession battle on a near-weekly basis. Given the suspect status of the defense, they cannot afford to give opponents extra chances. They sure did so last Sunday with five total turnovers in the blowout loss. With star tight end Darren Waller already being ruled out for Saturday’s game, the Raiders will again be without their most potent pass-catcher.

While the outlook for the Raiders may not be pretty, it is much brighter than that of the Browns. Sure, the team picked up a huge divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens last week. Unfortunately, the entire Cleveland organization has fallen into the clutches of the dreaded health and safety protocols. At the time of writing, 20 players are currently on the Browns’ ever-changing virus list. Among the most notable offensive positives are starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, his backup, Case Keenum, receiver Jarvis Landry, and offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. On defense, the Browns’ secondary has been ravaged with positive tests. Safety Grant Delpit and corner A.J. Green were among the latest to be put on the virus list. Even head coach Kevin Stefanski could not escape unscathed.

If neither Mayfield nor Keenum can clear protocols in time for Saturday’s game, Nick Mullens would be in line to start at QB. While the Browns would ideally lean on their run game in that scenario, the backfield will also be shorthanded. Kareem Hunt has already been ruled out for this NFL betting contest with an ankle injury. Nick Chubb figures to be the heart and soul of Cleveland’s offense as a result, while the defensive front will be tasked with shutting down Las Vegas.

Check out all of our NFL game previews and picks for the week >>

Trends

  • Raiders are just 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last six games.
  • 12 of the Raiders’ last 18 games have gone over the total.
  • Browns are only 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
  • Five of the last seven Raiders vs. Browns head-to-head matchups have gone under the total.

Bottom Line

The rash of virus cases in Cleveland has led to what would otherwise be unfathomable NFL betting line moves for this game. Despite getting blown out by nearly 40 points last week, the Raiders are now laying four points on the road after opening as five-point underdogs. Then, there’s the total, which has plummeted from the opening number of 44 to 37.5. That preseason-like line is the lowest over/under of any Week 15 game. 

While the current state of the Browns virus list would certainly figure to give the Raiders an edge, laying more than a field goal with Las Vegas is a scary proposition. It’s not like Derek Carr and the offense have done anything to deserve being road favorites. That being said, one has to believe that even without Darren Waller, Carr can make some plays against a depleted secondary. Wideout Hunter Renfrow and running back Josh Jacobs give him two capable targets to work with. This, along with the belief that the Browns can put together a couple of scoring drives of their own, makes a contrarian over play quite intriguing. After all, this is a regular-season NFL game we are talking about. Surely the two sides can cobble together 38 points between them, right?!

Pick: Over 37.5

Bet $10, Win $200 if Your Team Scores a TD >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.