Liberty Flames vs. Ole Miss Running Rebels Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Storylines are rich for this matchup. Hugh Freeze returns to The Grove as Liberty’s coach after a disgraceful exit from Ole Miss in 2017. Meanwhile, draftniks have had this matchup circled on the calendar for months as it presents an opportunity for top QB prospects Malik Willis and Matt Corral to face off. The question is Corral’s health, as he missed last week’s loss to Auburn early due to an ankle injury but was able to return to the game. For Willis, this will be a significant step up in competition over the rest of Liberty’s schedule and an opportunity to solidify his draft value.
With two coaches who are not strangers to pouring on points and two teams who sit top 20 in points per game, fireworks are a reasonable expectation. What are the best betting matchups in this game?
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Details
- Opening Line: Ole Miss -9.5, O/U 68
- Current Line: Ole Miss -9.5, O/U 68
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Overview
Matt Corral has rocketed up draft boards this season while leading a prolific offense that ranks 13th in the nation in scoring. The team features the third-ranked rushing attack and on the backs of four players above 320 rushing yards: (Corral – 519 / Henry Parrish Jr. – 464 / Snoop Conner – 435 / Jerrion Ealy – 321). Not to be outdone, the 23rd ranked passing game has been productive, led by impressive WR Dontario Drummond’s 658 yards. Turnover margin has been yet another bright spot, ranking 11th with a positive .88 per game. All in all, Lane Kiffin has built this group into one of the best in the nation.
Defensively the team has struggled. The scoring defense ranks 83rd nationally and was shredded in back-to-back games against Alabama and Arkansas, allowing 93 points combined. They have settled in lately, though it likely has more to do with the scheduling easing up and offensive struggles last week against Auburn that allowed the Tigers to grind clock most of the second half. The rush defense ranks 100th nationally while the passing defense ranks 90th. If there is one bright spot, it ranks 19th nationally in sacks led by DL Sam Williams’ 8.5 total.
Make no mistake, if Liberty has a chance to pull the upset, it will be behind Willis, and the 16th ranked scoring offense. The QB has been dynamic, with 1,986 passing yards with 21 TDs and another 684 with 9 TDs on the ground. Like Ole Miss, the backfield has been a rotation between three backs, with none of T.J. Green, Joshua Mack, or Shedro Louis emerging from the pack on the 44th ranked rushing attack bolstering the 41st ranked passing offense. The biggest concern is a rank of 119 in sacks allowed, likely a byproduct of Willis’s ability to extend plays combined with disappointing line play. If Ole Miss’s pass rush can win, there is a real possibility of a very long day for Willis and company.
Surprisingly the team has been stout defensively in ranking 13th nationally in scoring offense. While the rush defense has ranked 42nd, the pass unit has shined on the way to the 6th best. The pass rush has been very balanced, with nine players totaling multiple sacks, a category where the Flames rank 14th nationally. The team has been average in turnover production, ranking 88th nationally in takeaways for a margin that ranks 57th. On this side of the ball, the hope is to slow down Ole Miss just enough to allow the offense to steal the game.
Trends
- Liberty is on a 14-3 ATS streak.
- Ole Miss is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games as a favorite
- Four of Ole Miss’s previous five games have gone Under
Bottom Line
This game is Willis’s moment, and the team will be motivated to play for Freeze. Ole Miss is coming off a very tough stretch of games in SEC play, and Corral’s injury raises red flags. The line at 9.5 points allows for nice wiggle room for Ole Miss to pull the game out without covering, and the emotion should keep Liberty involved throughout. But ultimately, sentiment runs out, and Ole Miss is simply more talented upfront.
Pick: Ole Miss -9.5
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Jeff Bell is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jeff, check out his archive and follow him @4WhomJBellTolls.