Lightning vs. Avalanche Game 4 Bets: Top Stanley Cup Finals Parlay Odds & Picks (6/22)
Tell me, have you heard this before? The Lightning lose two straight on the road. Then they bust through and win at home.
Tampa Bay could be in the middle of putting out a sequel to another remarkable comeback, and this time the final scene will have them hoisting Lord Stanley. They have the momentum right now, but they can’t rest on that alone because the Avalanche offense has continually shown they can turn it on at any point.
Bet $10, Win $200 if Either Team Score a Goal >>
Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
You had the feeling the team would play much better at home, and they’re now 8-1 at the Amalie Center. The Lightning offense that was shut out in Game 3 came through with six goals, including four in the second period, to put the game out of reach.
Andrei Vasilesky struggled in the first two games with a .838 save percentage and -2.10 goals saved above expected, but like he’s done before in the playoffs, he rebounded by saving 37-of-39 shots in the 6-2 win. The Avalanche are averaging 35.6 shots in the first three games and averaged 35 shots per game in the regular season, so expect Colorado to keep bringing it. If Vasilesky continues to play as he did on Monday, he could be the third person to win back-to-back Conn Smythe trophies (Sidney Crosby 2016-2017, Mario Lemieux 1991-1992, Bernie Parent 1974-1975).
On the other side, Darcy Kuemper was the one that struggled, giving up five goals off 22 shots, and was pulled during the game. Head coach Bednar said that even though Kuemper had a bad game, he’ll be right back in the net for Game 4.
In the first two games, the Lightning allowed the Avalanche to get off to a hot start. Containing them at the beginning of Game 3 was a key factor. When Gabriel Landeskog scored that initial goal midway through the first, you had the fear they were starting to get into the groove and could continue to light up the lamp. But the Bolts responded with two goals in two minutes towards the end of the second, and it gave them the push they needed. That certainly carried over to the second period.
The Lightning need to contain the Avalanche at the beginning of the game. They are a very deep team with someone on every line that has played well throughout the playoffs, so if they start finding the net and have a multiple-goal lead, they can control the game. They’re still dominating the 5-on-5 by taking nearly 60% of scoring chances and playing much better on special teams, going 5-for-11 in the series on power plays and 11-for-12 on the penalty kill. They’re the better team, so we’ll have to see if talent can overcome experience.
Several key injuries could play a huge factor in this game.
Nikita Kucherov was injured in Game 3 after a collision with Colorado’s Devon Toews. Kucherov came out for the ensuing power play and left for the locker room late in the third period. Lightning head coach Jon Cooper thinks he can play, but it’s up to the medical staff to determine that.
Brayden Point is a different story as he deals with an injury that sidelined him for the Eastern Conference Finals. He played limited minutes in Games 1 & 2 before sitting Game 3, but Cooper won’t count on him as he said it’s “highly doubtful†he plays.
There’s positive news on Nazem Kadri as we might see him soon. Kadri had surgery on his hand during the Western Conference Finals after a collision with Evander Kane. Avs head coach Jared Bednar said he’s skating with the team and could be available at some point, but he is unsure how soon.
The Avalanche have yet to lose consecutive games during the playoffs, but to be fair, they didn’t have as tough of a road to this point as the Lightning did. We’ve seen throughout the playoffs that when Vasilesky has an excellent performance in the middle of the series, he carries that over.
The first few shifts will play a significant factor. Colorado has to score early and back Tampa Bay against the wall because the longer you keep them in the game, the more confidence it gives them. This team, with its championship pedigree, will make you pay.
Until someone takes down the champs at home, you must ride with them.
Leg 1: Lightning ML (-120)
Total Goals
The total is one that you can confidently wager on at over 6. As we’ve seen, the over 6.5 has hit in all three games, so the number you confidently throw down is over 6. I don’t believe it will be as lopsided as the previous games, and both offenses will play well enough to smash that over.
Leg 2: Over 6.0 (-115)
Steven Stamkos Anytime Goal
Stamkos was one of the players on the Lightning that was the most vocal after the Game 2 loss. We can categorize him as talking the talk and walking the walk as he came through with a goal and an assist. Leaders lead, and that’s what he’ll do again in Game 4.
Leg 3: Steven Stamkos Anytime Goal (+145)
Total Parlay on DraftKings +740
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.