Lions vs. Buccaneers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 2)
Introducing the Week 2 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 2 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Lions and Buccaneers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 2 Betting Primer>>
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)
Sides:
- The Lions have won nine of their last 10 home games.
- The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in seven of their last eight games.
- The Detroit Lions are 10-5 ATS over their last 15 games.
- The Lions are the No. 1-ranked team ATS since Dan Campbell was hired as the head coach (73%)-the most profitable teams against the spread to bet on since the halfway point of the 2021 season.
- The Lions have been 70% ATS favorites since the start of 2023.
- The 2023 Buccaneers (Canales was the OC) were 8-2 ATS on the road (80%).
- The Underdogs have won five of the last eight Buccaneers' games.
- The Buccaneers have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
Totals:
- The average total in the Lions' last 20 home games has been 54.5 points; 75 percent (15 of 20) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
- Five of the Lions' last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Lions' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall:
Every game played at Ford Field has the chance to completely shoot out. However, a rematch of last year's divisional round between the Bucs and Lions stands out, in particular, based on all the injuries that Tampa Bay is dealing with in their secondary. Outside Jamel Dean, Tampa is down several starting defensive backs. CB Bryce Hall is on IR. Antoine Winfield Jr is in a walking boot. Safety Josh Hayes suffered an ankle injury last week. CB Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion. This might force two rookie CBs to start in Week 2 for the Bucs. Yikes.
As I said, we saw these two teams face off in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs last season. The Lions emerged victorious 31-23 while covering the 6-point spread. It was tied 17-17 heading into the fourth quarter.
Similar to last week, my lean is simple in a matchup between two of the NFC's top teams... Give me the Lions as favorites at home. But given how great Baker Mayfield has looked recently with the Buccaneers (he might have his swagger back) and how he's performed ATS as a road underdog, I wouldn't say I like picking sides. If anything, I see so much value in TB+7.5. Betting against Dan Campbell isn't usually profitable, but a touchdown with the hook in a game that could be so back-and-forth? It might be too good to pass on.
Still, give me the total. This one is easy. Over.
Here is one of my favorite stats about Ford Field from last season. It's the Coors Field of the NFL. Overs, overs, and more overs. In 2023, Lions games were 7-3 toward the over, with games averaging nearly 52 total points. The fact that this game stayed under the total last week makes me even more bullish that we get a long-awaited shootout.
Props:
- In Week 1, rookie RB Bucky Irving led the rushing attack with 62 yards on nine carries, including a 31-yard burst, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Rachaad White struggled to find running lanes, managing just 31 yards on 15 carries (long of 15 yards). White averaged -2.1 rushing yards over expectation per attempt - the second-worst mark in Week 1.
- The Buccaneers starter still played 70% of the snaps to Irving's 31%. The White/Irving split is somewhat concerning. White saw a 70% snap share or less once last season, and it was in a game where he struggled immensely as a rusher, averaging fewer than 2 yards per carry. Irving steps in immediately as a rookie and excels at rushing in the new scheme orchestrated by new OC Liam Coen. Coen handpicked Irving during the NFL Draft as a plan to lessen White's workload. And rookie RBs (especially Day 3 picks) don't usually play this much from the get-go.
- White's pass-catching is still top-notch, but his continued struggles as a rusher are hard to ignore. Don't think White goes to zero due to the receiving, but the carries could shift dramatically if Irving is just more efficient in this rushing scheme.
- The Lions held Kyren Williams in a check to under 3.0 yards per carry after they were one of the best run defenses in the league in 2023, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
- The Lions’ pass funnel defense allowed 14 targets to the slot in Week 1. Chris Godwin is going to see ample opportunities for receptions. In Week 1, Godwin led all Bucs receivers with eight catches on eight targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, accounting for a 27-percent target share and 30-percent target rate.
- Baker Mayfield has passed for over 261.5 passing yards in six of his last eight games played.
My Picks: