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Lions vs Rams NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)

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Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>

Detroit (DET) vs. Los Angeles Rams (LAR): DET -3.5

Sides

  • Jared Goff is 7-0 ATS in Week 1.
  • The Lions have won eight of their last nine home games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in four of their last five games.
  • The Detroit Lions are 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games.
  • The Lions are the No. 1-ranked team ATS since Dan Campbell was hired to be the head coach (72%). The most profitable teams against the spread to bet on since the halfway point of the 2021 season.
  • The Rams have won six of their last seven games against NFC opponents.
  • The Lions were 69% ATS as favorites in 2023. The Rams were just 55% ATS as underdogs in 2023.
  • The Rams 2023 starters were 1-7 as underdogs straight up.
  • The favorites have won ten of the Rams' last 11 games.

Totals

  • Twelve of the Lions’ last 13 season openers have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Lions have scored first in each of their last seven games.
  • Five of the Rams' last seven games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 6-7 toward the O/U in their last 13 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in 2023. Only four times in 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • The average total in the Lions' last 19 home games has been 55 points; 79 percent (15/19) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • Five of the Lions' last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Lions' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

We saw these two teams face off in the first round of the NFC playoffs last season. The Lions emerged victorious 24-23. The Rams covered the 3-point spread while the game went UNDER the 52-point closing total. The Lions were up big in the game (14-3) before a 50-yard TD to Puka Nacua closed the gap.

In a heavyweight rematch between two NFC contenders, my lean is simple. Give me the Lions as favorites at home.

The Lions were one best team ATS in 2023 especially when they were favored at home (69%). They are all-in on this season equipped with top-tier playmakers and elite offensive line to protect Jared Goff. Good teams win. Great teams cover. I'll run through a wall for Dan Campbell.

And for one, am skeptical this Rams defense will stop anybody after losing Aaron Donald. They performed well above expectations last season with not many marquee names. They won't be as lucky in 2024, especially in Week 1. On Thursday, they placed CB Darious Williams on IR.

Now to the total. This one is easy. Over.

Here is one of my favorite stats about Ford Field from last season. It's the Coors Field of the NFL. Overs, overs, and more overs. Last year alone, Lions games were 7-3 toward the over, with games averaging nearly 52 total points. The fact that this game stayed under the total when these teams last played makes me even more bullish that we get a long-awaited shootout.

Props

  • The Rams are expected to deploy more of a 1-2 bunch at running back this year, as opposed to how they deployed Kyren Williams with a 90% plus snap share. Blake Corum should get some steady run in a back-and-forth contest. Lions DT D.J. Reader was listed on the injury report, so Detroit’s run defense might not be its stout self in Week 1.

My Picks

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