Lions vs. Ravens: NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Lions vs. Ravens.
NFL Betting Primer: Lions vs. Ravens
Baltimore Ravens (BAL) vs. Detroit Lions (DET) – Ravens (-3)
Heavy wind potential for a game between two legitimate Super Bowl contenders (22 miles per hour with gusts up to 35 mph). I think this is a true "prove it" game for both teams, to put the rest of the league on notice of how seriously they should be taken.
The line is pretty spot on given the Ravens playing at home.
But it's clear that the trends heavily favor the Lions. Detroit has been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 22-7 (76%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense.
And team's coming off the London game have been trailing in all their games the next week in the fourth quarter. Both teams rank top-10 in points scored per game in the first half, but Baltimore has been sluggish at home averaging just 7 points per game in the first half.
Would not surprise me in the slightest to see the Lions jump out to a lead, with the Ravens hoping to rally in the second half.
Honestly, I like the Lions a lot in this spot as 3-point underdogs because it's just based on them playing on the road. But again, the home-road splits with Jared Goff - as we discussed last week - only impact him in actual cold weather.
But they proved last week they could travel to a hostile environment and score points on a solid offense. The Buccaneers shut down the Lions’ running game, and the offense still totaled 380 yards of offense, as Goff diced up a solid secondary with 340 passing yards.
The Lions' offensive line is ranked No. 1 in PFF pass-blocking and is setting up Goff for success every single week. I don't anticipate much change versus a Ravens' pass rush that ranks fourth worst in pressure rate.
Lamar Jackson won't be as lucky. The Lions defense has come ALIVE this season generating the fourth-most pressures and 7th-highest pressure rate.
He will have to be Superman to get the Ravens to the promised land (and 3-point cover).
For the total, everything points to the under including the weather forecast - although I don't feel as strongly about it as some of other unders on the Week 7 slate. It has some elements of a sneaky shootout just based on two QBs that are playing excellent ball squaring off.
The Ravens have been an under-machine at 5-1 this season. But they have also faced a rookie QB making his first start, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, another rookie QB making his first start, Kenny Pickett (lol) and Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis.
Their one "over" was against the Bengals - easily the best QB they have faced all season.
The Lions are 3-3 when it comes to totals but 1-2 toward the under on the road. Given how unders have been hitting, Detroit has been one of the "better" teams to force overs.
The way I see the over hitting is with Lamar Jackson’s magic. I am confident that Detroit will score against the Ravens if they can't get pressure on Goff. And Jackson can easily shred the Lions' secondary if their pass rush doesn't hit home. And the offense the Ravens are running under Todd Monken - he's getting the ball out faster than ever before - suggests that the Ravens passing attack will have its moments with their run game likely neutralized by the No.1-ranked Lions run defense.
So, after going into this game fully anticipating backing the under, I am pivoting to an over after further review.
And we can parlay a game over with a player prop over. Because it's Mark Andrews week. The Ravens tight end has gone over 65-plus yards in three straight games and is in a great spot versus a suspect Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
My Picks:
- Lions +3 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Over 42 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
My Props:
- Mark Andrews over 53.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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