Best Long-Shot Odds & Picks for 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year (2022)
The 2022 NFL season is almost upon us, so it is an excellent time to dive into the futures market. Last season, Cooper Kupp took home the award to cap off the third straight year that a non-QB won it.
The offensive player of the year award has essentially turned into the de-facto “non-QB league MVPâ€, acknowledging the efforts of other skill positions. The last time a player won MVP and offensive player of the year was Patrick Mahomes in 2018, which was also the last time a QB won this award.
A QB has won the MVP in each of the last nine seasons, while a non-QB has won the offensive player of the year award in five of the last eight seasons. Below, I will walk through my two best bets for the 2022 NFL offensive player of the year.
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Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
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The biggest concern for Ekeler is his health. However, 2021 was his healthiest year as he played 16 of the 17 games.
Ekeler is poised for his best year if he stays healthy again. A true swiss army knife for the offense, Ekeler is capable of racking up the stats both on the ground and through the air.
Think of him as a discount version of Christian McCaffrey. In 2021, Ekeler finished tied for first in total touchdowns (20), sixth in yards from scrimmage (1558), and eighth in touches (276).
So why am I optimistic that Ekeler will have an even better year in 2022? For a couple of reasons, starting with the offensive line.
The Chargers’ offensive line is ranked as the 12th best in the league, according to PFF. Most of the guys on that line are young and should only improve from 2021, which will create more offense for Ekeler.
Secondly, this will be the second year this team will play under Brandon Staley’s system. Staley’s system is hyper-aggressive and benefits offensive players from a statistics standpoint, especially considering how often he likes to go for it on fourth down and attempt to extend drives.
Lastly, Justin Herbert. Herbert is already one of the best QBs in the entire league, and he is only going to continue to get better.
Not only will Herbert’s success directly improve Ekeler’s success, but defenses will rarely be able to stack the box because of Herbert’s arm, which will open up the running game for Ekeler. There are a lot of huge expectations for this Chargers team this season, and I think they will live up to them.
If Ekeler’s numbers improve again, he will at least be in the conversation, making 100/1 odds worth a sprinkle.
Another guy who is worth a sprinkle at 100/1 is Najee Harris. Let’s start with the bad because many of you reading will probably wonder why in the world Harris is as high as 100/1 to win this award.
First of all, Pittsburgh’s offensive line is awful. Entering this season, PFF has that unit ranked as the third worst in football, only above the Bears and the Seahawks. Secondly, the Steelers roster as a whole is awful.
Right now, the QB battle in Pittsburgh’s camp is between Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. That is like saying your two dinner options are Taco Bell or White Castle: neither are good and will most likely leave you sprinting to the bathroom in disgust afterward.
So why bet on Harris? Because I believe Harris will be the most utilized individual player in football this season.
In 2021, Harris already led the league in touches (381). Now, the Steelers are making an even further downgrade at QB than they had last season, which is saying a lot considering Big Ben was clearly fighting for his life out there.
Coach Mike Tomlin is one of the best minds in the game, and he knows that their only remote chance of success is through ground and pound football. The defense will be what it was last season, which is good, so they will need a way to keep the defense off the field as long as possible in between possessions.
Harris was already second in rush attempts last season, and I would be shocked if he is not first this season. So he will get the opportunities. But will he get the results?
I think yes. While the O-Line is bad, it is the same as it was last season, and Harris still finished fourth in rushing yards (1200) and yards from scrimmage (1667).
He is only 24 and only going to get better with more experience, so he is worth a shot at 100/1 despite how bad Pittsburgh will likely be this year.
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.