Los Angeles Angels Team Preview (2020)
The Angels have been actively filling — or they hope filling — some needs this offseason while making one of the biggest splashes by signing Anthony Rendon to a lucrative long-term deal. They also reportedly agreed to trade for Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling before the Mookie Betts blockbuster sat in limbo and was reconfigured. Even though the reworked blockbuster was completed, the deal for Pederson and Stripling fell through.
While the Angels would certainly look better with Pederson and Stripling, the fact that the organization was willing to make that deal could forebode in-season moves to bolster their chances of making a postseason or World Series run. In addition to making moves on the player front, they also made a headline-grabbing signing at manager by inking former Rays and Cubs skipper Joe Maddon. There’s blood in the water and uncertainty surrounding the American League West in the wake of the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. The Angels appear to be positioning themselves as a legitimate threat in the division.
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2020 Futures Odds for the Angels (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Regular Season Wins: 85.5 (Over -118/Under -104)
- American League West: +800
- Win American League: +1,800
- Win World Series: +3,500
Hitting Outlook
Any discussion of the Angels’ hitting outlook has to start with three-time and reigning American League MVP Mike Trout. His 180 wRC+ topped all qualified hitters last year, per FanGraphs. Rendon adds another top-10 finisher to the lineup after the former Nationals third baseman amassed the seventh-highest wRC+ at a robust 154. Two-way star Shohei Ohtani didn’t total enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter last year, but his 123 wRC+ in 425 plate appearances would have ranked 47th. Ohtani’s unique usage as a hitter and pitcher mean he almost certainly won’t be in the lineup every day as their designated hitter, but he’s yet another stud hitter for them who totaled 367 plate appearances when he was last healthy enough to pitch and DH in 2018. Now that he’s no longer adjusting to MLB play, I suspect he’ll best 400 plate appearances this year.
Beyond the big-three hitters, there’s depth and potential for a fourth bopper returning to form, too. Justin Upton’s 2019 campaign didn’t begin until June 17, as he opened the year on the injured list with a toe injury. It was cut short with patellar tendinitis that was treated with a PRP injection. Between injuries bookending his season, Upton had his worst offensive campaign since a 43-game debut back in 2007. He managed just a 92 wRC+, but he’s only a year removed from tallying a 123 wRC+ in 2018 and two years from recording a juicy 137 wRC+ in 2017. Spring breeds optimism across baseball, but it’s still promising to read a piece from Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reporting Upton looks primed for a bounce-back year. Upton made ample hard contact even in a down year last season, and I’m buying a rebound.
In addition to the stars, the team will hope Tommy La Stella and Brian Goodwin retain gains they made in breakout seasons in which they recorded a 122 and 109 wRC+, respectively. If La Stella falters, utility player David Fletcher (99 wRC+ in 2019) offers an alternative at second base. Fletcher is a highly-useful reserve who’s listed as the primary backup at second base, third base, and shortstop on the team’s depth chart. Additionally, if La Stella continues to hit and Fletcher demonstrates he deserves more playing time, the washed Albert Pujols could find himself glued to the pine more frequently, with La Stella kicking over to first base. As for Goodwin, even if his gains stick, he’ll likely find himself relegated to fourth-outfielder duties eventually this year. Stud prospect Jo Adell is knocking on the door after reaching Triple-A and acquitting himself well in the Arizona Fall League. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the sixth-best prospect on their top-100 list, and Baseball Prospectus ranks him as the second-best prospect on their top-101 list.
Jason Castro wasn’t as big of a signing as Rendon, but he’s a nice addition to the team. He totaled a 103 wRC+ in 275 plate appearances for the Twins last year. Catchers as a whole totaled an 85 wRC+ last year, per FanGraphs, and the Angels’ backstops mustered a pathetic 70 wRC+ collectively. He’s a huge offensive upgrade offensively who is no slouch defensively. Among catchers who caught a minimum of 500 innings, FanGraphs graded him the 14th-best pitch framer out of 37 qualified catchers. Using the same threshold, he ranked 18th in defense, also as measured by FanGraphs. When he takes a seat, Max Stassi will be a huge downgrade offensively with an unimaginably low 5 wRC+ last year but a more reasonable, yet still terrible 71 wRC+ in 486 career plate appearances. He’ll represent an upgrade in pitch-framing, though. Among catchers with a minimum of 100 innings behind the dish in 2019, Stassi ranked fifth in framing.
Last year, the Angels finished 14th in wRC+ (99). I’m bullish on them improving dramatically. The pieces are there for them to be a top-five offense this year, and a top-10 offense is probably the floor — with a healthy Trout, obviously.
Pitching Outlook
The pitching outlook isn’t nearly as rosy as the offense. Last year, Angels starters had the second-worst ERA (5.64) and tied for the ninth-worst SIERA (4.80). The relievers performed more respectably, finishing 20th in ERA (4.64) and 19th in SIERA (4.33), but that’s hardly grounds for celebration. They should improve this year, and even being merely average-ish could do the trick with a loaded offense.
The Angels are reportedly planning for Ohtani to return to the mound in mid-May. “I do expect Shohei to pitch once a week to stay on that kind of program,†general manager Billy Eppler said regarding the two-way star’s usage when he returns. In 10 starts spanning 51.2 innings, Ohtani rattled off a 3.31 ERA (3.65 SIERA), 10.4 BB%, 29.9 K%, and 15.2 SwStr% in 2018. He has elite bat-missing ability and top-of-the-rotation potential. He’s coming back from Tommy John surgery, so some rust could be in the mix early. There’s always risk after Tommy John surgery that a pitcher doesn’t return to their previous form, but that’s not nearly as common of an occurrence as pitchers returning from shoulder surgery.
Lefty Andrew Heaney served up a 4.91 ERA last year, but his advanced metrics — including a 3.87 SIERA — were more promising. In 30 starts spanning 180.0 innings in 2018, Heaney pitched to a 4.15 ERA and 3.74 SIERA. Homers killed him; he yielded 1.89 HR/9. If MLB returns to a less lively ball than last year’s rabbit ball, Heaney could benefit immensely.
Rookie Griffin Canning flashed in 18 appearances (17 starts). His 4.58 ERA was nothing special, but his 4.33 SIERA was solid. The righty did a fantastic job of avoiding bats with a 25.0 K% and 13.8 SwStr%, better than the league averages of 23.0% and 11.1%, respectively. Canning’s rookie season came to a close early in late August due to mild inflammation in his throwing elbow. The good news is he’s already throwing batting practice, as you can see below.
The incumbent trio should all slot into the rotation — when healthy in Ohtani’s case. Los Angeles acquired Matt Andriese and Dylan Bundy via trades and signed Julio Teheran to add competition for the rotation. Andriese has starting and relieving experience. Teheran has routinely outperformed his advanced metrics with a 3.67 ERA and 4.27 SIERA in his career and 3.81 ERA and 5.11 SIERA in 33 starts for the Braves last year. I’m skeptical of him continuing to pull off his wizardry, but he’s at least a reliable innings-eater with the potential to continue to defy his underlying stats.
Bundy’s the arm I’m intrigued by in this group. Instead of rehashing my optimism for a change-of-scenery breakout, I’ll direct you to read this piece and this one. Both linked pieces are fantasy articles, but a Bundy breakout would be a boon for the Angels in real-life baseball, too. In short, he has an intriguing repertoire that could lead to major progress. Perhaps new pitching coach Mickey Callaway can coax a breakout out of him. Before underwhelming as the Mets’ manager, Callaway did a masterful job operating as Cleveland’s pitching coach. You can read about the success his pitchers enjoyed under his tutelage here. I don’t expect the Angels to boast one of baseball’s best pitching staff this year, but I’m a believer in them being average or better.
2019 Record and 2020 Record Projections
| Year/Source | Wins |
| 2019 | 72 |
| 2019 Pythagorean Win-Loss | 72 |
| 2020 FanGraphs | 83 |
| 2020 PECOTA | 87* |
*Baseball Prospectus uses fractional wins in their PECOTA projections, but I rounded to the nearest win in the table.
As you can see in the table, the Angels struggled with only 72 wins last year. FanGraphs and PECOTA each project a win total landing on opposing sides of the 85.5-win betting line.
Prediction
I’m starry-eyed looking at the Angels’ offense, and I believe their rotation will take a leap. Even with FanGraphs projecting them to go under their win total, 83 isn’t far off. With some in-season additions, they could easily eclipse that projection. PECOTA already projects them to go over 85.5 wins. I love the over.
Additionally, I like the numbers on them winning the American League (+1,800) and World Series (+3,500). I’m less inclined to throw money on them winning the division at +800. The primary reason I like the longer odds on the more challenging outcomes is due to believing the Angels will be better at the end of the season than the beginning. The regular season is a long haul, and the Angels are delaying Ohtani’s return to the bump in order to manage his innings so he’ll be available in September, and for the postseason if they qualify. If they’re in the mix around the trade deadline, they could be buyers. Furthermore, the back of their rotation is no great shakes, but it could be a talented, top-heavy rotation built for the playoffs if Ohtani returns to pre-Tommy John form and any of Heaney, Canning, or Bundy break out. And that’s saying nothing of them potentially trading for a high-end starter.
Pick: Angels Over 85.5 wins in 2020
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