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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick

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The Kansas City Chiefs appear to have an easy win on tap for Week 17. The Chargers have been competitive in the majority of their contests, but Philip Rivers has often found a way to make Los Angeles lose. The Chiefs are expected to play their starters this week due to second place in the AFC still being a possibility if the Patriots find a way to lose to the Miami Dolphins. The Chiefs may rest their starters if they are scoreboard watching, which could lead to a cover for the Chargers. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7.5 on the Kansas City Chiefs. The consensus over/under total opened at 46.5 points. The point spread has climbed to -8 on the Chiefs. The over/under total has dropped to 45.5.
  • Current Line: Kansas City -8
  • O/U: 45.5
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 29th
  • Last Meeting: Kansas City defeated Los Angeles 24-17 — November 18, 2019

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Chargers at Chiefs >>

Overview 

The 5-10 Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. Stacked with talent on both sides of the ball, they have seen a concerning decline from Philip Rivers. He has looked shaky on the field all throughout the season and is set to finish with his lowest touchdown count since 2007. An injury to Derwin James and the Melvin Gordon holdout promised to make things tougher for the Chargers, but almost no one would have predicted that the on-field product would look this bad. Although it may be arguable if he should be, head coach Anthony Lynn may be on the hot seat after a terrible season. Rivers’ erratic decision making at times is not something that Lynn is going to be able to change at this point in the 38-year-old Rivers’ career. And as such, management should understand the limitations of what they thought was a playoff-caliber roster. The home fans have not helped matters, as traveling fans often take over the stadium, making the majority of their home games feel more like games played on neutral fields. This may be the last start for Rivers in a Chargers uniform as Los Angeles’ front office may feel it’s time to move on. Los Angeles’ locker room should be motivated in the potential final game of an era.

The 11-4 Kansas City Chiefs appear all but locked into the third seed in the AFC. They have had their hiccups this season, but are playing some of their best football as the season winds down. The defensive unit that was a major liability last season has propelled the Chiefs to an excellent record and the only team that holds the distinction of beating the AFC’s number one seed Baltimore Ravens and the number two seed New England Patriots. The Chiefs appear poised for playoff success and should have an easy time dispatching the sixth seed and making it to the divisional round. Depending on who you ask, the Chiefs are the favorites to meet the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs will be hoping to finish the season strong, but also to finish it healthy. However, first half or second quarter action may be the better plays with the Chiefs a candidate to rest some starters after halftime if the Patriots are blowing out the Miami Dolphins. 

Trends 

  • Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against Los Angeles.
  • Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Kansas City.
  • The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests between these two teams.
  • Los Angeles is 4-9 ATS on the season.
  • Los Angeles is 3-3 ATS on the road this season.
  • Kansas City is 10-5 ATS on the season.
  • Kansas City is 4-3 ATS at home this season.
  • Los Angeles is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests. 
  • Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in their last five contests against the AFC West. 
  • Los Angeles is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight contests against the AFC.
  • Los Angeles is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 contests as an underdog.
  • Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests.
  • Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests as a favorite.
  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against teams with losing records.
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last five December contests.
  • Over is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ last five road contests.
  • Over is 6-1 in Los Angeles’ last seven road contests against teams with winning home records.
  • Under is 7-3 in Los Angeles’ last 10 contests following a loss.
  • Under is 12-4 in Los Angeles’ last 16 contests against the AFC West.
  • Under is 5-0 in Kansas City’s last five contests.
  • Under is 6-0 in Kansas City’s last six contests against the AFC West.
  • Under is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five contests against teams with losing records.
  • Under is 4-0 in Kansas City’s last four contests as a favorite.

Prop Bets 

Austin Ekeler over 15.5 fantasy points (-115)
I was as surprised as you are reading the title of this prop to find this fantasy point-based line available at PointsBet. Ekeler is averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game at ESPN. He has cleared 15.5 fantasy points in three of his last five contests including the last game against the Chiefs when he posted 21.2 fantasy points. Ekeler recorded five carries for 24 yards and eight receptions for 108 receiving yards in that contest. Ekeler could see increased snaps in Week 17 as the Chargers may want to take one final look at what they have in Ekeler before deciding what to do with Melvin Gordon or others in free agency, or in the 2020 NFL Draft. Ekeler saw more than 50 percent of the snaps for the first time in three weeks in Week 16’s loss to the Oakland Raiders (Gordon saw 61 percent). The last time he saw over 50 percent of the snaps was in Week 11 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Melvin Gordon’s snap count history also provides some interesting insights. Week 16 was the first time in two weeks that he saw more than 50 percent of the snaps.

Tyreek Hill over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tyreek Hill has cleared 68.5 receiving yards in six of his last nine full contests. Los Angeles has allowed five different receivers to post over 68.5 receiving yards in their last four contests. Both Hill and Patrick Mahomes seem to be rounding back into form, and the recent trends against the Chargers secondary suggest that over is the play here. While just inches higher of a potential smash number of 66.5, this line still presents heavy value on the over. Lock this is as a one unit play at PointsBet.

Bottom Line

With both the Chiefs and the New England Patriots playing at 1 pm, Kansas City will be playing their starters in hopes of a Patriots loss and a move up to second seed in the AFC. The Chiefs beat the Chargers by seven points in Week 11 by a final score of 24-17. The 7.5 and eight-point consensus point spread for this contest were posted right past the extreme value point on the Chiefs. Los Angeles has dropped nine of their 10 losses this season by seven points or less, making seven the number sharps and the public would consider as a smash play. The second quarter Chiefs line, if it becomes available, is the top non-player prop play for this contest. With the current -8 line at DraftKings, for this contest we will be going with an alternative spread play of -6.5 at -150 at FanDuel. Eating the juice here makes this point spread for this contest a potential smash. Lock the alternate spread in at multiple units if you feel comfortable with a full game play.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110)

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 17

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+13.5)
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+12.5)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+6)
Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+1)
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.