Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins Odds and Game Pick
A pair of AFC teams that have been trending in polar opposite directions of late will face off Sunday afternoon when the Los Angeles Chargers travel to the Sunshine State to battle the Miami Dolphins. At 2-6, the Chargers are fighting for their playoff lives at this point as they look to snap a two-game skid. The Dolphins, winners of four straight, will be vying to keep pace and possibly even gain ground in the AFC East division race. The betting odds have shifted slightly in favor of the home favorite relative to opening lines.
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Details
- Opening Lines: Dolphins -1; O/U 47
- Last Meeting: September 29, 2019 – The Chargers defeated the Dolphins 30-10 in Miami.
- Attendance: About 13,000 fans will be allowed to attend.
Game Odds
Overview
The Chargers have become the butt of many jokes thanks to their inability to hold onto big leads. Since the start of the 2019 season, Los Angeles has a dismal 3-15 record in games decided by one score. Most recently, L.A. squandered a 24-3 lead to the Broncos two weeks ago and had a potential game-winning touchdown correctly overturned in a loss to the Raiders last week.
Despite their poor record, rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has given Chargers fans plenty of hope for the future. Defensively, Los Angeles has too much talent to be surrendering 27 points per game. Everything Herbert is able to do is undone by the Chargers’ inability to get stops. Failure to turn things around could lead to the demise of head coach Anthony Lynn at the end of the season.
The Dolphins’ decision to switch to rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa following their bye week was widely questioned and scrutinized. After two games, Brian Flores is looking like the coaching genius that he is. Tagovailoa notably did not have to do much in his first career start against the Rams thanks to a dominant performance by Miami’s opportunistic and underrated defense. But last week against the Cardinals, Tagovailoa held his own in a showdown against Kyler Murray, completing 20 of 28 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 35 yards rushing.
The Dolphins are suddenly very much in the thick of things when it comes to the AFC playoff picture.
Trends
- Chargers 2020 Betting Trends: 5-3 ATS; 5-3 to the Over
- Dolphins 2020 Betting Trends: 6-2 ATS; 3-5 to the Over
- The outright winner has also covered the spread in each of the last 13 head-to-head meetings between the Chargers and Dolphins.
- The road team has won each of the last three head-to-head meetings between the Chargers and Dolphins.
- The Under has hit in 15 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings between the Chargers and Dolphins.
Prop Bet
First Team to Score 15 Points: Chargers (+114 at 888sport)
This prop bet plays right into the game script that Chargers fans have come to know so well this season. Los Angeles has made a living on starting games strong, and they’re averaging 14.8 points scored in the first half of games compared to just 10.8 for opponents. The Chargers have led at halftime in each of their last five games and in six games this season. The second quarter has been particularly kind to the Bolts this year, as they hold roughly a 3.5 average scoring advantage over opponents in that quarter alone. The Dolphins have been a decent first half team as well, which makes me slightly hesitant to bet the Chargers’ first-half moneyline here.
In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, I’ll opt instead for plus-money odds on Los Angeles to reach 15 points first, something that they’ve done in all but one of their games this season.
Bottom Line
The Dolphins have attracted the majority of sharp money in this game so far, as the line has moved from -1 up to -2.5 in their favor. The movement on the total is also something to note. While it’s relatively small compared to some of the other Week 10 over/under line moves, the market has moved the needle up from 47 to 48.5.
This game is just too close for me to confidently call. I’d prefer the Chargers catching points, but backing this team is a true hold-your-nose type of pick right now. While the best of the total number is gone, I still am in favor of betting the over on 48.5. Both the Chargers offense and defense have proven to be the perfect material for high-scoring games, with each of their last five games sailing over 50 and three surpassing 60 total points as well. While Dolphins games are only 3-5 to the over on the year, four would have cleared the current line for this game.
Bettors have a choice here to either buy into 48.5 right away or wait and see if the line potentially reverses course over the next few days.
Pick: Over 48.5 Total Points (-108 at 888sport)
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.