Louisville vs. Creighton: 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Louisville vs. Creighton.

2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Louisville vs. Creighton

Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for this opening-round NCAA Tournament matchup.

2025 NCAA Tournament Preview: Louisville vs. Creighton

Louisville 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

It took a while for Coach Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals to get all their ducks in a row with a number of transfers entering the fold, but an 18-2 conference record positioned them well for the NCAA Tournament. This has blossomed into a tough all-around team with an offense and defense both ranked inside the top 30, which will make Louisville a difficult out in March.

Let’s start with the defense. Louisville’s defensive identity starts with disruptive perimeter defender and ACC Defensive Player of the Year Chucky Hepburn. The transfer from Wisconsin creates havoc at the point of attack, while the Cardinals prevent free throws better than almost anyone nationally, with a top-30 defensive free throw rate. Louisville will keep teams out of the paint and force turnovers at a respectable clip as well.

Offensively, the Cardinals’ balanced attack features efficient shooting across the board. Louisville has converted 45.4% of its shots overall (46th nationally), 65.5% on near-proximity shots (20th), and 42.1% on midrange jumpers (37th). Terrence Edwards Jr. provides crucial shot creation, J’Vonne Hadley brings versatility and leadership with his interior presence. James Scott has proven to be one of the most efficient scorers in the country, with the fourth-best 2pt percentage in DI.

Perhaps most impressive — and boding well for the tourney — is Louisville’s ability to play away from home. The Cardinals rank top-five nationally in road performance, per Haslametrics. It’s tough to tell how much of the Cardinals’ success came from finally gelling as a team vs. facing the easy schedule in the ACC, but they scored easy wins over Clemson and North Carolina and won two of their three neutral-court games, only falling to Oklahoma after allowing the Sooners to shoot 47% from deep.

Louisville finished the year ranked top-10 nationally in Bart Torvik. The Cardinals’ seeding does not reflect that, so don’t be surprised if Kelsey’s squad makes some serious noise.

Creighton 2025 NCAA Tournament Preview

The Creighton Bluejays enter March Madness as a team with a clear identity under head coach Greg McDermott’s guidance. Everything starts with big man Ryan Kalkbrenner. The defensive scheme evolves around him, forcing opponents into difficult midrange jumpers rather than easy shots at the rim. Creighton also commits fewer fouls than any team in America.

Offensively, Steven Ashworth has found his rhythm as one of the best facilitators in college basketball, forming a formidable inside-outside duo with Kalkbrenner. This team boasts top-50 efficiency metrics on both sides of the ball and are a consistent squad given their interior efficiencies.

Creighton knows their identity, but it makes the Bluejays one of the more matchup-dependant teams in the tournament. Facing big teams is going to be tough for Creighton to manage, and while they prefer the perimeter look with a high three-point attempt rate, they don't exactly have consistent shooters. It's also hard to forget their non-con losses to Nebraska, San Diego State, and Texas A&M, making me question their ability to beat more physical teams. Creighton forces few turnovers, giving opponents a high field goal rate. And without drawing a lot of fouls or getting many second-chance looks, there isn't much of a fallback plan if shots aren't falling.

What Creighton does, they do well. It's just a matter of how the Bluejays react when they face someone who can limit what they do well.

2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Louisville vs. Creighton

The Louisville Cardinals had one of the best turnarounds in the nation this season. In Pat Kelsey's first season as head coach, the Cardinals went 27-7 overall and earned a bid into the ACC Championship before losing to Duke. Louisville hasn't hit three-point shots consistently, but its defense has been very strong. Ultimately, the Cardinals have limited teams to a 49.2% effective field goal percentage and have allowed just 48.3% from inside the arc.

That's big news, primarily since Creighton has shot over 60% from inside the arc this season. That said, it might be hard for Creighton to get enough shots up to win this game. The Bluejays have struggled to win the turnover battle in most games. They could not also earn second chances on the offensive glass and don't always get to the foul line consistently. Louisville is more well-rounded, and they're playing in Kentucky. Give me Louisville.

2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Louisville vs. Creighton

Bet: Louisville -2.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks

For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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