Louisville vs. South Florida: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Louisville vs. South Florida.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Louisville vs. South Florida

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Louisville 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Pat Kelsey’s second year in Louisville has been a bit of a disappointment after the Cardinals ranked 11th in the AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll in the preseason. Louisville came into the season with first-team All-Big East transfer Ryan Conwell, a five-star freshman point guard in Mikel Brown Jr. and a roster loaded with enough talent that championship aspirations weren’t unreasonable. The reality has been a 23-10 record - a fine season by almost any measure, but one that has felt like underperformance throughout.

What Louisville does exceptionally well is shoot the ball. J'Vonne Hadley shoots nearly 46% from deep, 6-foot-11 Sananda Fru ranks second nationally in two-point shooting rate down low and the Cardinals’ depth pieces are legit. Conwell has been sensational when healthy. So has Brown in the games where he has been available, highlighted by a 45-point effort in a 118-77 win over North Carolina State.

But let’s not bury the lede: Brown's status is the crux of what Louisville can accomplish in March. When he is on the floor, Louisville has a different level of creation than almost any other team at its seed line. When Brown is out, Conwell and J’Vonne Hadley need to carry a heavier load.

The defense is also a concern. It's solid, but nothing jumps off the page, ranking outside of the top 50 in opponent two-point and three-point shooting. Stepping up in class has also been an issue for Louisville. The Cardinals went 1-8 in Quad 1A games, ranking 57th in such games with a 125th-ranked defense. They rank 363rd in Haslametrics' paper tiger factor and 357th in the away-from-home metric. The talent here is real. The execution has been inconsistent. That makes it hard to gauge the ceiling for Kelsey's squad heading into the tourney.

South Florida 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Bryan Hodgson arrived in Tampa in March 2025, took over a program coming off a 13-19 season and rebuilt nearly the entire roster from scratch. Eleven months later, his Bulls went 23-8, won the AAC regular-season title outright at 15-3, finished the year on an 11-game winning streak and are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2012.

It is one of the most complete one-year turnarounds in the country. The identity is scoring at volume and defending at a level that is tough to match. They rank in the top 40 in field goal attempt rate with an elite offensive rebounding clip, attempting two-point shots at the closest proximity to the basket in the league. With the 12th-fastest pace of play and 10th-most dunks in college hoops, this is a must-watch team.

The engine of all of it is Izaiyah Nelson, a senior forward who swept the AAC Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year in the same season - the first time that sweep has happened in conference history. He averaged 15.8 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, ranked eighth nationally with 18 double-doubles and controlled the paint at both ends. Wes Enis is the other first-team All-AAC piece, averaging 16.7 points and becoming one of two Bulls to make 100 three-pointers on the season, which is a program record.

Joseph Pinion also hit 100 threes, showcasing the scoring opportunities on this team. The knock is their non-conference play, where their defense dropped to 100th, and they dropped to teams like George Washington, Oklahoma State and Colorado State away from home. They can get sloppy with the ball and defend the perimeter at a below-average clip. Still, South Florida has moved up to 39th in play since February 1st. Hodgson has his team playing as well as it has all season at the right moment. This is an athletic and talented team that can compete with the best of them.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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