LSU vs. Mississippi State: SEC Tournament Predictions (Wednesday)
The SEC Tournament kicks off today in Nashville, Tennessee as one of the most anticipated tournaments among the power conferences. As the tournament currently projects, 13 different SEC teams are in the tournament with the conference ranking as one of the best in the KenPom era. Even the 16-seeded South Carolina got some heralded wins and might've been a tournament team if it was in the ACC. However, the focus is on the top. Auburn is currently the consensus favorite to win the SEC tournament at +150, followed close behind by Florida (+250), Alabama (+425) and Tennessee (+600). Not only are these top SEC teams but all four rank in the top-six nationally. There's a decent chance your national champion is in that group there. Johni Broome is battling with Cooper Flagg for the Wooden Award and Auburn is fighting for Duke for title favorites but there is no question: the SEC is the best conference this year. Not surprisingly, all those teams have a bye today. Here are our top picks for Wednesday’s game LSU vs. Mississippi State.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Wednesday’s Best SEC Tournament Bets: LSU vs. Mississippi State
(All bets are one unit)
LSU vs. Mississippi State
Location: Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Line: Mississippi State -8.5 | Total: 147.5
To start off the nightcap of SEC day one play, we have LSU doing whatever they can to keep their tournament hopes alive against Mississippi State. It hasn't been a great recent month for the Tigers, going 0-5 in their final five games without a single-digit defeat in there. In that timeline, LSU ranks 114th overall, behind Robert Morris, with the 165th-ranked offense and 94th defense. This might get ugly.
A Mississippi State win here would keep them comfortably in the field and while they aren't exactly on the bubble, I'm sure a win moves them to pure lock territory if they aren't there already. What stands out in this matchup will be on the glass. The Bulldogs are a top-50 team at snagging offensive boards but they are top-10 at converting the second-chance looks. LSU ranks outside the top 330 in both those metrics so I'd expect the 6-10 KeShawn Murphy to eat down low. Rebounding is such an effort play too and the Bulldogs have so much more to play for that I have to imagine they will want a dominant win to show just how much they belong in the tournament.
LSU doesn't really feel like they have a clear path to keep this one close, either. The best way to attack Mississippi State is from the Bulldogs' weak perimeter defense but LSU only shoots 31 percent from deep, 323rd in DI hoops. Mississippi State's near-proximity defense ranks 38th in DI and they'll force their fair share of turnovers against LSU's sloppy play.
This feels like a big line, but when you pull back the curtain a bit, it's clear just how much of an advantage Mississippi State has here, analytically speaking and narratively. Don't think too much about this one.
Prediction: Mississippi State 78, LSU 67
Best Bet: Mississippi State -8.5 (-110 at Caesars)