LSU vs. Virginia Tech: Women’s 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Predictions
South Carolina has won 42 consecutive games, are the defending National Champions, and are deservedly the heavy favorite to win it all again this year…but where’s the fun in having to fork over upwards of $400 just to profit $100?
Instead, I’m going to highlight the value in this year’s Women’s Final Four below.
Finding the Value Bets in the Women’s Final Four (2023)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
(3) LSU Tigers (-2) vs. (1) Virginia Tech Hokies (+115)
LSU returns to the Final Four for the 6th time in program history and the first since 2008 when they reach their 5th straight. With all of the program’s success and despite being clearly under-seeded in this tournament, this season’s 32-2 Tigers might just be the best squad in their history. Their two losses were to the undefeated Gamecocks back in February and then to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. How they were given a 3-seed after going 28-2 is beyond me. The Tigers’ offense ranks 5th in the country, averaging 81.8 points per game, and their scoring margin (25.1) ranks second only to South Carolina. Their defense, while not as suffocating as SC, still ranks 24th at 56.7 points allowed on average. However, despite their offensive prowess, the Tigers have been prone to scoring droughts this tournament, as evidenced in their 54-42 rock fight against Miami in the Elite 8. They have also not scored more than 66 points in the three games since their 73-50 trouncing of Hawaii in the opening round. Still, they have held opponents to 49.25 points in this year’s tourney.
It takes great shooting and ball control to beat the Tigers, and the Hokies do just that.
Georgia Amoore (16.3 ppg, 5.0 apg, 3.0 rpg) is third in the nation in three-pointers, averaging 3.3 per game. In fact, she is just two three-pointers away from an NCAA Tournament record. She should set that record on Friday night and could have the chance to add to it in the National Championship on Sunday.
Not only can Amoore shoot lights out, but she also has the handles and ball control to take on any defensive pressure LSU throws at her and the Hokies. Days after Ohio State forces the mighty UConn Huskies to turn the ball over 26 times with their full-court press, Amoore, and the Hokies rendered the same press obsolete by breaking it consistently in the first half and only committing 13 turnovers.
Part of the reason for Virginia Tech’s composure is that as a junior, Aussie Amoore is one of the youngest players on this Hokies squad that boasts nine seniors. This team plays like a well-oiled machine that shows the chemistry that builds over years of playing together. Of all the chemistry on head coach Kenny Brooks’ Hokies, no two players are more connected than Amoore and 6-foot-6 senior Elizabeth Kitley (18.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg). The two teammates spent all of COVID-19 lockdown quarantined at Kitley’s parents’ house as Amoore did not return to her home country of Australia out of fear she might have trouble returning due to the pandemic. That time together galvanized their bond, and it has shown up on the court in spades as they have led the Hokies to their first-ever Final Four and the best season in program history in their final year together.
Virginia Tech also plays great defense, not top ten like the Gamecocks and Tigers, but at 57.1 Points Allowed, they rank 26th in the country. They also play bend but don’t break defense, as evidenced when Buckeye sharpshooter Taylor Mikesell made five three-pointers in the first half before finishing with just seven after the Hokie defense made adjustments.
The 1-seeded Hokies heading into their Final Four matchup as underdogs isn’t that surprising against the stellar and aforementioned under-seeded LSU defense, but I will back the Hokies and take the value offered in the juiced plus-moneyline.
Virginia Tech moneyline (+115)
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