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Magic vs. Hawks NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions (Tuesday)

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The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks battle it out in the first game of Tuesday’s NBA Play-In Tournament to determine who will earn the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and keep their quest alive in the NBA playoffs.

Below are some of our top NBA Play-In Tournament picks and prop bets for Tuesday, April 15th’s contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic.

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Tuesday’s Best NBA Play-In Tournament Picks & Predictions

Magic -5 (-110)

The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic split the season series with two wins apiece. The Hawks won the most recent game on April 13th, earning a 117-105 win at home. However, neither team used their starting players in the season finale, so we can’t put too much stock in that.

That said, the Magic haven’t been a top-tier offense this season. Instead, they’ve scored just 110.4 points per 100 possessions while shooting a 51.4% effective field goal percentage. The offense has had a hard time finding good looks and converting. However, the Magic have still been able to add 28.7% of offensive rebounds and a 21.1% free-throw rate, which is the second-best in the NBA.

Ultimately, the Magic should find their way to the foul line often. The Hawks rank 23rd in defensive free-throw rate and have also allowed a 56.4% effective field goal percentage. It might be hard for the Magic to add a high rate of offensive rebounds, but finding good looks should at least be easier.

On the other hand, Orlando has one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Magic have limited teams to 109.9 points per 100 possessions, which is second-best in the NBA. Orlando has earned nearly 17% of turnovers and has allowed just 26.4% of offensive rebounds.

The Hawks are the better overall offense. However, Atlanta doesn’t do anything on offense that stands out. The Hawks have gained 29.1% of offensive rebounds and have a 19.8% free-throw rate to go along with a 55% effective field goal percentage. In addition, Clint Capela is still out with a hand injury, which won’t help.

Therefore, give me the Magic at -5 at home.

-Jason Radowitz

Zaccharie Risacher Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+104)

Though Tuesday's game is likely to be lower scoring than the previous four meetings between the Magic and Hawks, I still like Zaccharie Risacher to knock down at least two threes in this game. This is the number-one overall pick's first postseason game, and while some may shy away from him performing great in the most meaningful game of his career, this is a good matchup for him.

Risacher is averaging just 1.6 made threes per game, so he'll need to go over his season average to hit this number. That said, he's made at least two three-pointers against the Magic in three of his four games against them this year, despite not scoring more than 11 in a single contest. The reason for Risacher's success is that the Magic aren't very good at defending the three-point line, even though they're very good defensively. At this price, there's no reason not to bet this over.

-Phil Wood

Onyeka Okongwu Less Than 14.5 Points

Scoring totals are going to go under a lot in the first game of the night, which is why I'm backing Onyeka Okongwu to put up fewer points than his season average. Though the Hawks and Magic combined for at least 218 points in all four of their regular-season meetings, the total is set below that on Tuesday, signaling oddsmakers expect the Magic's top-ranked scoring defense to set the tone for the game. That's bad news for Okongwu.

Okongwu averaged 13.4 points per game during the regular season, and he performed even better against the Magic, averaging 16.7 points per game in three contests. On April 8th, he scored 30 points in 40 minutes. While that performance was impressive, Okongwu has struggled in his other games against Orlando. In his first two games against the Magic, he combined for just 20 points, and he never scored more than 11 despite playing at least 29 minutes in both games. This number shouldn't be set higher than his season average, so the less than is the right play.

-Phil Wood

Wendell Carter Jr. Less Than 9 Rebounds

Wendell Carter Jr. averaged 7.2 rebounds per game this season, which is where this number should likely be set for Tuesday's game. Carter has faced the Hawks four times this season, and he's only topped nine rebounds once. In that game, he grabbed 15 boards in 32 minutes. There's no denying how impressive that is, but more recently he managed nine rebounds against the Hawks in 37 minutes.

Orlando’s defense will keep the Hawks from scoring their usual 118.2 points per game, and those missed shots could lead to more rebounds for Carter, especially if he sees elevated playing time during the postseason. But I don't know if he'll play more than 37 minutes, and even when he reached that number last time out against Atlanta, he struggled to clear this number. Carter averaged 7.3 rebounds per game against the Hawks despite his 15-rebound explosion, so the less than is the right play.

-Phil Wood

First-Basket Scorer: Franz Wagner (+600)

The early NBA game on Tuesday will be the No. 7 seed vs. No. 8 seed NBA Play-In Tournament game in the Eastern Conference between the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks. As you'll notice from the trends and stats below, this matchup is a total toss-up for the first basket scorer prop. Yet, let's try to find an edge. 

Both the Hawks and Magic have identical 50% win rates on opening tip-offs this season. Atlanta has scored the first basket in 52.4% of its games while Orlando has scored first in 47.6% of its games. Those are also too close to lean one way or the other. 

The opening tip will feature Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu against Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. Here's where we can find an edge. During the regular season, Carter went 2-0 on tips head-to-head against Okongwu. Atlanta and Orlando faced each other two other times in the regular season, but they weren’t Carter vs. Okongwu tip-offs. 

Let's bank on Carter winning the jump ball to give Orlando the first opportunity to score. On that note, Franz Wagner offers plenty of value. He leads the Magic in first-shot percentage this year (15.3%), though his 10.2% first-baskets-per-start rate is fourth among the starters. 

In his three games against Atlanta in the regular season, Wagner twice scored Orlando's first points of the game. In the other, he scored second after Paolo Banchero. There are a ton of ways to go for the first basket scorer pick in this matchup, including some Hawks options. Wagner, though, presents some clear value. 

-Dan Servodidio

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks Same-Game Parlay

We kick things off in Orlando, where the Magic will look to limit the Atlanta Hawks’ scoring and advance to the playoffs. These two teams have met four times this season, with each team recording two wins. When these two last engaged on April 8th, Atlanta won that contest by 12 points.
In the last five meetings between the two teams, Atlanta has the edge by one win. The Magic may be smothering when it comes to other teams, however, the Hawks seem to find a way to find success against Orlando and score a fair amount of points.
Orlando comes into this contest having won seven of their last 10 contests, while Atlanta has split their last 10 games with five wins and five losses. The Magic seem to be in better form between the two, yet we feel Atlanta stays within five points of Orlando in this contest.
Orlando has only won four of their last six home games, while averaging 107.9 points. The Magic are going to have to seriously consider increasing the pace if they want to beat the Hawks by more than five points. Orlando is only averaging 107 points over their last five matchups against Atlanta.
The Hawks have been a scoring tour de force over their last 10 contests, averaging 122.6 points per game. Those numbers increase to 123.8 in the last 10 games played on the road. Over the last five meetings against Orlando, Atlanta has not failed to exceed 106.5 points. Atlanta has exceeded 106.5 points in all but two of their last 20 games. 
Onyeka Okongwu has not been the most trustworthy in terms of blocks over the last 10 games. The Atlanta center is averaging 0.5 blocks over that span and has played in six contests where he did not record a block. Our reasoning for this selection is based on history against Orlando. Okongwu has blocked at least one shot in four of the last five meetings against Orlando, including five in one game.
Caris LeVert is averaging 13.8 points over the last 10 contests while shooting 45.4% from the field on 10.8 attempts per game. The Atlanta shooting guard has scored at least 13+ points in six of the last 10 games, including 13 points against Orlando on April 8th. LeVert is putting up an average of 15.8 points on 47% shooting during April, falling short of 13 points in just two of his previous seven contests. 
Parlay Odds: +450
-Steve Krebs

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