March Madness Team Betting Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes
The Iowa Hawkeyes have been one of the country’s best offensive teams, led by one of the country’s best players in Luka Garza. They’ve been rewarded with a two-seed in the West Region and a first-round matchup with Grand Canyon University.
The Hawkeyes are a team that has Final Four aspirations since the season tipped off, but they’ve got a tough road ahead before they make those dreams a reality. Let’s take a look at Iowa’s NCAA Tournament betting preview and see how deep I’ve got them going in this year’s field.
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Betting Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes
- Record: 21-8 overall, 14-6 Big Ten
- ATS: 15-13-1 (51.7%)
- O/U: 14-15 (48.3%)
- Points Scored/Game: 83.8 (4th overall)
- Points Allowed/Game: 71.9 (206th overall)
- Outright Odds: +2000 (BettingPros Consensus)
Team Strengths
Iowa is the country’s fourth-most efficient offense, driven by National Player of the Year finalist Luka Garza. Garza is quite possibly the tournament’s biggest mismatch, as he’s a big man who can do it all, averaging nearly 24 points per game. He shoots over 40% from three, over 70% from the line, and nearly 55% from the floor. He also chips in nearly nine boards a game. At 6’11†265 lbs., he’s a tough matchup for most collegiate big men as is, but his ability to step out, shoot, and run the offense through himself are all a bonus.
The Hawkeyes are also very adept from behind the arc. They shoot 38.6% from three, good for 13th in the country. Three of their regular starters – Garza, CJ Fredrick, and Joe Wieskamp – all shoot better than 40% from deep, and six of their eight regulars shoot above 30%. With so many open looks thanks to all the attention defenses pay to Garza, Iowa could get hot and light up the scoreboard on any given night.
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Team Weaknesses
With such a high-powered offense usually comes a bit of a shoddy defense, and that’s exactly what Iowa brings to the table. Despite being much better in the latter half of this season, Iowa still ranks just 206th in points per game allowed, 169th in defensive efficiency, and 291st in turnovers forced per game.
The Hawkeyes also struggle to defend the three-ball, which is a key neutralizer for their own offensive three-point attack. They’re 229th in the country in opponents’ three-point field goal percentage, so it could be tough to get on runs and pull ahead with their propensity to give up open looks from deep.
Why They’ll Win it All
Iowa’s offense is one of those units that could get absolutely torridly hot at any time and sustain the hot streak for multiple games at a time. If they get on a roll in the first round or two, especially against inferior competition in the first round, watch out.
They’ve also got one of the country’s best players, Luka Garza, to rely upon. He has the ability to take over a game, and if the Hawkeyes get deep into the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, a lot could fall on his shoulders, which is great news for Iowa.
Why They Won’t Win it All
Their poor defense is tough to overlook. Not only will they theoretically be playing quality teams every night, but they’ll also have the target on their backs in every matchup until the regional final as the higher seed.
There’s certainly concern that the Hawkeyes won’t be able to get a big stop when they need one, stop the bleeding when their opponent gets hot on offense, or tread water if their offense goes through a dry spell.
Iowa Hawkeyes March Madness Prediction
Iowa’s offense, especially Garza, gives them a chance to win against any team, any night, in any round of the tournament. They’ve got enough firepower to drop 80+ points and shoot their way to the Final Four.
However, I’m too wary of their defensive deficiencies to pencil them into the Final Four. In fact, I think their defense holds them back from getting to the Elite Eight. They’re up against a tough bottom-half of the West bracket, and if they get past Grand Canyon and either Oregon or VCU, they’ll have the pleasure of facing an always-tough Kansas team or the USC Trojans who boast their own offensive juggernaut in Evan Mobley.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.