March Madness West Region Betting Primer: Gonzaga Gets a Great Draw
The Gonzaga Bulldogs were the best team in the country throughout the 2020-21 season. And the Bulldogs were rewarded with a pretty favorable draw in the West Region of the 2021 NCAA Tournament bracket.
The No. 2 seed in Gonzaga’s region is an Iowa team it handled with relative ease in December. And the 3-seed and 4-seed, Kansas and Virginia, are both dealing with COVID-19 disruptions that forced them to pull out of their respective conference tournaments. Gonzaga also got a decent draw in the Round of 32, as they’ll draw either Oklahoma or Missouri, two capable but flawed teams. That’s the perk of being the No. 1 overall seed.
Now the question is, can Gonzaga handle the pressure of a perfect season and make a run to the Final Four?
Here’s a detailed look at how the West Region breaks down with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-0 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 13-9 O/U)
Odds to win: -335
Strengths: Can I say everything? The Bulldogs are the best team in the country, per both KenPom and Torvik. They have the most efficient offense in the country and are the country’s best shooting team from 2-point range. They clean up the glass well and don’t turn the ball over much. The Bulldogs can also defend, ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted-defensive efficiency and seventh in Torvik’s metric.
Weaknesses: The Bulldogs have the best starting five in the country, but their depth is questionable. Outside of their starters, only two players on Gonzaga average at least 14 minutes per game. If the Bulldogs get into foul trouble, they could be in trouble.
X-Factor: Freshman point guard Jalen Suggs can take over a game at any moment, as you might’ve seen in Gonzaga’s comeback win in the West Coast Tournament championship game. He’s a lock to be a lottery pick, but will the pressure of March be too much for him?
Prediction: As I said, I love Gonzaga’s draw. I expect them to get to the Elite Eight without much resistance. Gonzaga is my pick to make the Final Four out of this region.
(2) Iowa Hawkeyes (21-8 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 14-15 O/U)
Odds to win: +300
Strengths: Led by reigning Player of the Year, Luka Garza, the Hawkeyes are an experienced bunch with a lights-out offense. Iowa ranks second in adjusted-offensive efficiency, according to both KenPom and Torvik. The Hawkeyes make 38.6% of their 3-point shots and have made big strides on defense, jumping from 122nd in defensive efficiency last season to 63rd this year.
Weaknesses: The Hawkeyes are one bad shooting night away from going home early. While Iowa has improved defensively, they are poor defending the perimeter, allowing teams to hit nearly 35% of their shots from downtown.
X-Factor: Garza is Iowa’s engine, and he was robbed of a chance to participate in the NCAA Tournament last year. When he dominates, Iowa is darn tough to beat.
Prediction: Iowa could be in for a big test in the Round of 32. If they can get to the second weekend, they’re a legitimate threat to make the Final Four.
(3) Kansas Jayhawks (20-8 SU, 14-12-1 ATS, 12-14-1 O/U)
Odds to win: +450
Strengths: Kansas knows how to defend, ranking 6th and 10th in adjusted-defensive efficiency on KenPom and Torvik, respectively. They’re particularly strong defending the interior, where teams are just shooting 45.9%. They also block shots at an impressive rate. Defense is the calling card for this year’s rendition of the Jayhawks.
Weaknesses: Kansas is dealing with COVID issues that forced them to forfeit their semifinal game against Texas in the Big 12 Tournament. However, the Jayhawks should be good to travel to Indianapolis. They should get big man David McCormack back after being held out of the Big 12 Tournament because of COVID protocols. Aside from that, the Jayhawks have trouble scoring. Kansas hits just 33.8% of its 3-point shots and shoots below 50% from inside.
X-Factor: Kansas’ backcourt featuring Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji need to elevate their games if Kansas is to have any chance of going far in March.
Prediction: This Kansas team is a far cry from the 2019-20 team that didn’t get a chance to compete in the dance. Coach Bill Self said the team would travel to Indianapolis without three players. If McCormack is one of them, Kansas is in a world of trouble. They’re not a team I’m looking to take far in brackets.
(4) Virginia Cavaliers (18-6SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 14-10O/U)
Odds to win: +500
Strengths: The defending champs (yes, they’re still defending!) are actually a stronger offensive team this season, which is contrary to what you’d expect from a Tony Bennett-coached team. The Cavaliers are an elite shooting team, ranking 16th in 3-point shooting and 20th in 2-point shooting.
Weaknesses: Like Kansas, there are also uncertainties regarding Virginia’s status after COVID forced them to back out of the ACC Tournament. Defense isn’t a weakness for the Cavs, per se, as they rank 38th in adjusted-defensive efficiency. But opponents are hitting 34% of their threes against Virginia.
X-Factor: Junior guard Kihei Clark needs to provide a scoring punch, or else Virginia’s drive-and-kick offense becomes a bit too predictable. If Clark can score more from 3-point range, where he’s a 32.8% shooter this season, then Virginia’s offense becomes really tough to slow down.
Prediction: Virginia is vulnerable for a first-round upset against Ohio. The Bobcats have an NBA prospect in Jason Preston, rank 13th in effective field goal percentage, and hit 36.6% of their threes. Virginia also won’t travel to Indianapolis until Friday, as the bulk of the roster remains in quarantine. The Hoos are on major upset alert.
(5) Creighton Bluejays (20-8 SU, 13-15 ATS, 13-14-1 O/U)
Odds to win: +400
Strengths: It’s fitting that Creighton and Iowa are in the West Region because they’re carbon copies of each other. The Bluejays are experienced and an offensive juggernaut, ranking 15th in adjusted-offensive efficiency. Like Iowa, Creighton has improved defensively, ranking 44th in adjusted-defensive efficiency. But unlike Iowa, Creighton is led by guard Marcus Zegarowski, who can take over any game.
Weaknesses: Creighton is always capable of a clunker, and that’s exactly what we saw in the Big East Tournament final. The Bluejays shot 9-for-34 from deep and lost by 25 points to Georgetown. This is a high-ceiling, low-floor team. And even worse, Creighton is awful at the free-throw line, a critical factor in March.
X-Factor: Creighton’s senior trio of Denzel Mahoney, Damien Jefferson, and Mitch Ballock need to consistently step up and take the pressure off Zegarowski. When everyone’s contributing, Creighton is almost unbeatable.
Prediction: Creighton’s variance terrifies me. But I like their chances of getting to the second weekend. UC-Santa Barbara might put up a fight, but they don’t defend the 3-pointer well enough. After that, I like Creighton’s chances against either Virginia or Ohio. But they don’t defend well enough to knock off Gonzaga.
(6) USC Trojans (21-7 SU, 13-7 ATS, 12-10-1 O/U)
Odds to win: +900
Strengths: If you haven’t watched 7-foot freshman center Evan Mobley yet, then you’re in for a treat. The Pac-12 Player of the Year averaged 16.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and three blocks per game for the Trojans. So it’s no surprise that USC has the second-best interior defense in the country. The Trojans shoot 52.8% from inside the arc and also rank 20th in offensive rebounding.
Weaknesses: With Mobley handling the middle, teams are forced to attack USC from the perimeter. The Trojans are allowing teams to shot 34.2% from deep. The Trojans are also a bit of a two-man show, with Mobley and guard Tahj Eaddy as the team’s primary scorers. USC is also a poor free-throw shooting team, which could loom large.
X-Factor: Who steps up beyond Mobley and Eaddy? The Trojans play many guys, but nobody on the team is averaging more than 9.9 points per game. USC’s supporting cast will need to step up.
Prediction: I think USC got a favorable first-round draw. Wichita State is a bit fortunate to be in the field, while Drake would be taking on the Trojans without their two best players. However, Kansas’ interior defense will be a big problem in the second round.
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(7) Oregon Ducks (20-6 SU, 14-12 ATS, 17-9 O/U)
Odds to win: +1500
Strengths: Dana Altman’s an outstanding tournament coach, and Oregon can throw a variety of defensive schemes at opponents to throw them off their game. The Ducks are experienced and rank 32nd in effective field goal percentage. They also shoot almost 38% from 3-point range.
Weaknesses: When Oregon makes a deep run in the tournament, it’s because they play elite defense. The Ducks have made it past the first weekend four times in the last seven years. They ranked 12th, 38th, 26th, and 15th in adjusted-defensive efficiency in each of those years. This year’s rendition doesn’t fit the bill defensively, as they rank just 96th in that metric.
X-Factor: The Ducks have five players scoring in double figures, but it needs senior guard Chris Duarte to rise to the occasion.
Prediction: Oregon’s first-round matchup against VCU doesn’t worry me, as the Ducks do a good job protecting the ball. But its defensive issues could be its downfall against an offense like Iowa. While it’s tough to beat Altman in a tournament setting, Oregon’s defense doesn’t do it for me this year.
(8) Oklahoma Sooners (15-10 SU, 12-12-1 ATS, 11-14 O/U)
Odds to win: +550
Strengths: The Sooners are a solid team led by the inside-out duo of Austin Reeves and Brady Manek. The duo, along with guard De’Vion Harmon, do the bulk of Oklahoma’s scoring. The Sooners are balanced, ranking 38th in adjusted-offensive efficiency and 47th in adjusted-defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: While the Sooners defend well in the paint, they are susceptible from 3-point range, allowing opponents to shoot 35.4% from deep.
X-Factor: Manek can sometimes be the star and can sometimes disappear. Given Oklahoma’s thin frontcourt, it could be in big trouble if Manek gets into early foul trouble.
Prediction: It’s interesting to see the Sooners as just +550 to make the Final Four, as this team is in a tailspin. Oklahoma enters the dance losers of five of their last six. Granted, all of those losses came by single digits. If they manage to get past Missouri, they won’t fair well against Gonzaga.
(9) Missouri Tigers (16-9 SU, 12-13 ATS, 13-10-2 O/U)
Odds to win: +2000
Strengths: The Tigers are a well-rounded team, ranking 33rd in adjusted-offensive efficiency and 56th in defensive efficiency. They also have a trio of upperclassmen averaging double figures in Dru Smith, Jeremiah Tilmon, and Xavier Pinson. Missouri hits 52.6% of its 2-point attempts.
Weaknesses: Missouri is a decent defensive team, but it doesn’t excel in any particular area. They send opponents to the line at an alarming rate and rank outside of the top 100 in effective field goal percentage, 2-point defense, and 3-point defense.
X-Factor: Can Missouri get stops without fouling? That’ll be the key to beating Oklahoma.
Prediction: So Oklahoma is +550 to win the West Region, and Missouri is +2000? The clear value is on Missouri there, who’s evenly matched with Oklahoma. However, I wouldn’t endorse taking a shot on the Tigers, as their chances of getting through Gonzaga aren’t high.
(10) VCU Rams (19-6 SU, 14-10-1 ATS, 9-16 O/U)
Odds to win: +2500
Strengths: The Rams are back to their havoc-causing ways. VCU ranks sixth in defensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive effective field goal percentage, and forces a turnover on 23.5% of their opponents’ possessions. Nah’Shon “Bones†Hyland is one of the best players in the Atlantic 10, averaging 19.4 points per game.
Weaknesses: While VCU is a defensive juggernaut, its offense is pretty average. The Rams rank 118th in offensive efficiency and really struggle from 3-point range, where they shoot just 32.9%. VCU is also poor on the defensive glass, allowing an offensive rebound on over 31% of their possessions.
X-Factor: Can anyone step up besides Hyland? VCU has only one other player averaging double figures. Its defense can keep them in games, but who can take the pressure off Hyland on the other end?
Prediction: VCU doesn’t have enough scoring talent to take down Oregon, whose experienced guards should do a fine job of protecting the ball against the havoc full-court pressure.
(11) Wichita State Shockers (16-5 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, 9-10 O/U)
Odds to win: +2000
Strengths: Wichita State ranks 50th in offensive efficiency and is particularly strong at defending the perimeter. Opponents have shot just 30.8% from 3-point range against the Shockers.
Weaknesses: Tyson Etienne is the only reliable scorer for Wichita State, averaging 17 points per game. The Shockers also struggle to score inside, ranking 322nd in the country in 2-point shooting.
X-Factor: Can anyone else take the load off Etienne? Alterique Gilbert, Morris Udeze, and Dexter Dennis need to show up.
Prediction: Truthfully, Wichita State is a little fortunate to be in the tournament field, as their best wins were against Houston and Mississippi. This isn’t a bracket-busting team.
(11) Drake Bulldogs (25-4 SU, 21-6 ATS, 17-10 O/U)
Odds to win: +2000
Strengths: Good on the committee for not penalizing Drake for struggling after losing their best two players to injuries. Drake is excellent offensively, ranking 31st in adjusted efficiency and 30th in effective field goal percentage. The Bulldogs also defend the 3-pointer well, allowing teams to shoot just 30.8% from deep.
Weaknesses: Drake will be without leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill and third-leading scorer Roman Penn. They’re a decent defensive team, but they are susceptible inside. Plus, it’s fair to wonder how strong the Missouri Valley Conference was this season. Drake was also 1-2 against Loyola-Chicago, the best team they faced all season.
X-Factor: Can Joseph Yesufu, D.J. Wilkins, and Tremell Murphy answer the bell? These three players are all scoring in double figures, and they’ll need to step up to get Drake to the Round of 64.
Prediction: I like Drake’s chances of beating Wichita State. They could give USC trouble in the Round of 64 too.
(12) UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (22-4 SU, 14-10 ATS, 11-13 O/U)
Odds to win: +3000
Strengths: Can the Gauchos make some noise in March? The Big West champions might have what it takes. They rank 73rd in adjusted-offensive efficiency and 87th in defensive efficiency. They have a trio of double-figure scorers and good guard play. They play at a plodding pace and hit 53.4% of their 2-point attempts.
Weaknesses: If there’s one area where the Gauchos can be exposed, it’s from 3-point range. Opponents have shot 33.4% against them from deep.
X-Factor: Can UCSB’s efficient shooting translate from the Big West to the Big East? The Gauchos are impressive, but they haven’t been tested against anyone in the non-conference slate.
Prediction: UC-Santa Barbara could give Creighton a real run in the first round. I think they’ll keep it close but ultimately fall to the Bluejays.
(13) Ohio Bobcats (16-7 SU, 14-8 ATS, 13-9 O/U)
Odds to win: +2000
Strengths: Get to know Jason Preston, as he’s a legitimate NBA prospect. The junior guard averages 16.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists. But Preston isn’t a one-man show. Ohio has four other players scoring in double figures. The Bobcats are also an excellent shooting team, ranking 13th in effective field goal percentage, 11th in 2-point percentage, and 50th in 3-point shooting. The Bobcats are also red-hot, having won nine of their last 10 games despite dealing with COVID issues throughout February.
Weaknesses: The Bobcats rank 144th in defensive efficiency and have allowed teams to hit 51.6% of their 2-point shots. They also aren’t the deepest team and mainly go about seven deep.
X-Factor: It’s Preston. Can he elevate his play against the elite competition? You bet. He scored 31 points on the road against Illinois in a two-point loss.
Prediction: I’m taking the Bobcats to upset Virginia and Creighton to make it to the Sweet Sixteen. This team is legitimate. They have a star, they have scoring depth, they play enough defense, and they took one of the best teams in the country down to the wire.
(14) Eastern Washington Eagles (16-7 SU, 15-7 ATS, 11-10-1 O/U)
Odds to win: +3000
Strengths: The Big Sky champs play at the 30th-fastest pace in the country and rank 38th in effective field goal percentage. The Eagles are well-balanced and have five players scoring in double figures. Defensively, Eastern Washington only allows teams to shoot 31.6% from deep. They’re also the 6th-best free-throw shooting team in the country.
Weaknesses: Eastern Washington doesn’t really have a glaring weakness. They are a little undersized, as they only have two players at 6-foot-9 or taller. They’re poor on the offensive glass and don’t force turnovers often enough.
X-Factor: Forward Tanner Groves averages 16.4 points and 8.1 rebounds. How will he fare against Kansas’ David McCormack?
Prediction: Eastern Washington could give Kansas some trouble. The Eagles took Washington State and Arizona down to the wire early in the season and only lost to Oregon by 17. While I don’t think they’ll knock off the Jayhawks, I think they’ll give them a game.
(15) Grand Canyon Antelopes (xx-xx SU, xx-xx ATS, xx-xx O/U)
Odds to win: +3000
Strengths: Led by Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon has been a fun story this season. The Lopes are elite in a few areas: 2-point scoring, 3-point defense, and 2-point defense.
Weaknesses: Grand Canyon struggles to hit threes and free throws, and they can get a little sloppy with the ball.
X-Factor: Grand Canyon essentially has two centers playing for the bulk of the game. Asbjorn Midtgaard is a 7-footer averaging 14 points and 9.9 boards. The Antelopes have 6-foot-10 big man Alessandro Lever, who averages 13.3 points and shoots 39% from three. Watching those two against Luka Garza will be a fascinating matchup.
Prediction: Grand Canyon is a really intriguing 15-seed. They could cover as big dogs and maybe make Iowa sweat a little bit. But ultimately, Iowa’s talent will prevail.
(16) Appalachian State Mountaineers (17-11 SU, 14-9-1 ATS, 11-13 O/U)
(16) Norfolk State Spartans (16-7 SU, 12-8-1 ATS, 12-9 O/U)
I won’t spend much time on the 16-seeds. The Spartans are making their second appearance in the big dance. The first time they made it, they knocked off Missouri as a 15-seed in 2012. If you’re looking to bet this play-in game, I’d lean Norfolk State, as they actually rank 54th in the country in defensive effective field goal percentage.
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