Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Pick for Super Bowl LV (2021)
The two-week lead-up for each year’s Super Bowl is one of the unique times in professional sports. As someone who writes a weekly column and makes picks on a regular basis, it’s an even more powerful moment.
Normally, I’m combing through a double-digit schedule of games with a deadline set for the middle of the week. Now, it’s the opposite. Double-digit days to produce one article. One pick.
This reversal of approach is not only reserved for those who write a picks column. All football fans — and bettors — experience it. There are only ‘so many ways’ to attempt to profit from a single game, and we have to explore all of them. With so much time, it’s easy to obsess over ‘which’ is the right play.
This column has made it a point to highlight the times when a number ‘feels’ wrong — or, more specifically, we ‘feel’ uncomfortable targeting it. Due to how much time we can spend staring at the numbers for the Super Bowl, using that same approach is critical when finding the best way to condense two weeks of preparation into a single pick.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 42-29-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook.
Bet $10, win $100 if the Buccaneers or Chiefs score a point >>
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 56.5 (-110)
“How can this game not reach sixty combined points?â€
It was the first comment I made to myself when beginning my preparation for this year’s upcoming Super Bowl, and it was the first indication that I was starting to lean in a specific direction.
That’s when I make it a point to dive into a pick. Specifically, to prove it wrong.
Almost every week, I write a reminder to my readers that the spread — or over-under — is based on perception. The job? Extract perception from reality.
My immediate perception of the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers was that it will be an offensive explosion. Fortunately, I won’t be alone with that thought. I am confident that most others will follow the same initial read.
The oddsmakers agree. The over-under for Super Bowl LV is astronomical. Despite my initial commentary to myself that the game should “reach sixty points,†I’m fully aware that the over-under will almost never show that number. It’s impractical. Impossible to beat? Of course not. But there are ‘checkpoints’ of sorts that the numbers follow — think about the importance of -3 or -7 in the spread — and showing a 60+ over-under is the equivalent of a spread that reaches 30 points.
Check out all of our Super Bowl LV sports betting coverage >>
With that, we have two critical pieces of information at our disposal. The first is the initial spread. Again, it was less than 60, but it was still a whopping 57. Confirmation bias will help us believe that the high number aligns with the initial read and we can safely dive in with the ‘over!’ That is, until we see the second element.
The over-under moved down.
I always pay attention to movement. It always tells a story. Sometimes, said story is buried, but it’s always there.
Without any reason to suddenly think that defenses will reign supreme, the number moving down is a ‘trap.’ It’s bait for people to pick the ‘over.’ It’s the same confirmation bias as the first point, but one that makes it that-much-more enticing to turn that bias into a bet.
A losing one, according to the odds.
We also have a direct example of these two teams playing a head-to-head game that produced fewer than 57 points, as the regular season meeting between the Chiefs and Buccaneers finished with a 27-24 final score. More importantly, that game featured only 37 combined points through the first three quarters, where the final 14 was scored during a feverish attempt at a comeback by the Buccaneers. In reality, the defense — at least for Kansas City — did reign supreme.
The over-under is high out of obligation to what most people will expect as well as respect for the teams’ offenses. Regardless, the number has had no issue taking a small half-point away just to look even more appetizing. Don’t bite.
Prediction: Chiefs/Buccaneers UNDER 56.5 (-110)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.