Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Divisional Round (2021)
In last week’s column, I focused much of my attention on overreaction, and it produced a perfect 3-0 record. We did have 17 weeks of data from which to draw conclusions, but we could also see with relative ease how people would more heavily weigh games in December compared to earlier in the year.
The same is true for the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Indeed, we only have one week of the playoffs to use — for most of the teams, anyway — but that week told quite a story. More importantly, it told the story loudly.
We were listening.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 41-27-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Cleveland Browns +10 (-105) at Kansas City Chiefs
Diving right in from the outline I gave in the introduction of this column, which winning team from the Wild Card round is going to be easiest to ‘sell?’ Here’s a hint: it’s also the one with the largest spread.
The spread is not actually the indicator that a specific team is going to be ignored, but it is confirmed that it’s happening. It also helps that said team will play against the defending champions in their first playoff game of the year.
No matter what the Cleveland Browns did in the Wild Card Round, it was almost certainly going to be brushed aside by the time people looked ahead to the Divisional Round matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. Part of this is because of Kansas City’s perceived dominance, while another part is from the opponent — Pittsburgh — and how the football-watching world was already downgrading the Steelers.
There’s also the obligatory ‘pat-on-the-back’ for the Browns. After last year’s disaster, it’s a big deal and a great story that Cleveland won eleven games and earned a playoff berth in 2020. Then, it went one step further and won a game without its head coach on the sidelines. The team will not get the aforementioned “pat-on-the-back.†Then it will be escorted out of the playoffs.
At least, that’s what people think.
Cleveland has every perception going against it that we could want when targeting the spread, when the reality is that the team is now 12-5 on the season and only needs to play a close game against the Chiefs. Kansas City is excellent, and it is the favorite to win the Super Bowl for a reason, but it hasn’t won a game by more than eight points since November 1st.
The Browns will be ready to play and keep that particular streak alive, even if the Chiefs ultimately win.
Prediction: Browns +10 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 52 (-110)
I make it a point to never take the clearest and obvious pick without valid justification. Therefore, let’s justify how the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will combine for enough points to reach the ‘over’ in Sunday’s matchup.
For starters, we have to acknowledge that this is probably a ‘trap,’ hence the “clear and obvious†nature of it. Between the hype of two historic quarterbacks playing against each other and the name value of both the Saints and Buccaneers, the initial thought will undoubtedly be “offense.†At best, we have to pay a premium for the ‘over.’ At worst, we lose.
I don’t like to lose a pick that already will cost us a premium. Why, then, is this worth the risk?
Throughout this season, I have made it a point to highlight how often past trends were broken. This is not a year where anything typical has worked. For that reason, I have bent some rules under the right circumstances, and it has been successful.
Think about the storylines that will go into this game prior to Sunday’s kickoff. It’s the battle of two veteran — All-Time Great — quarterbacks. Now think about how it would look for the league if they both put up duds. Indeed, no one from the league nor the officiating crew will make any extra efforts to guarantee a high-scoring game, but we will probably see a cleaner game from all sides under this bright spotlight.
More importantly, the Saints scored at least 34 points in both prior meetings with the Buccaneers, while Tampa Bay tallied 26 points in total. Even if New Orleans shows a slight dip in production, the Buccaneers have ground to gain.
Overall, Tampa Bay ranks third-best in the league in points scored and seventh-best in yards gained. The Buccaneers struggle to run the ball, but that’s the side of New Orleans’ defense that is utterly dominant. Once again, the story of Sunday afternoon will be the passing game.
Putting everything together, we have a key storyline that will admittedly cost us some points in the over-under, but two elite offenses that should still find a way to thrive. The stage is set.
Prediction: Buccaneers/Saints OVER 52 (-110)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.