Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 10 (2020)
As I’ve written over the past few weeks, we’re finally starting to see some consistency across the board. Spreads and over-under point totals are remaining eerily accurate, but teams are also delivering on expectations.
That’s not common.
Usually, we’ll see some wild swings between what the numbers state and what actually unfolds on the field. This year, we’re getting results that are incredibly close to their pregame numbers.
This isn’t a bad thing. It just means we have less wiggle room for a pick to stumble, but still win.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 18-17-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers UNDER 49 (-115)
Which of the many possible discomforts do we want to highlight? Is it the idea of picking an ‘under’ in a game in which the Green Bay Packers are playing? Is it the realization that the Jacksonville Jaguars might actually continue to score with rookie quarterback Jake Luton at the helm? Or is our expected impact of the weather, which is the most likely cause for the over-under dropping as much as it has in the past few days?
The answer, as always, is that discomfort is part of the game. It’s the most important part, really, as anything “comfortable†is likely to be dangerous.
Really, the matchup between Jacksonville and Green Bay needs a specific set of variables to go in the wrong direction for us to have been justified in our concerns. Indeed, if Jake Luton is outstanding and the Packers keep pushing the metaphorical has pedal on offense and the weather isn’t as bad as we expect, then the point total will be elevated. But, we would need all — or most, anyway — of those to go against us. The real probability is in our favor. As is the over-under.
Prediction: Jaguars/Packers UNDER 49 (-115)
Houston Texans +3.5 (-115) at Cleveland Browns
Most people like to avoid uncertainty. At times, I am “most people.†As we have seen over the course of these articles, however, uncertainty occasionally gives us an opportunity to buy before the known variables are in play.
Such is the case for the game between the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns.
As of this writing, the Browns’ facility is shut down due to the report of a positive COVID-19 test. Ultimately, this story may-or-may-not be proven false. We don’t care. We only care that people are going to wait for an answer before reacting. We shouldn’t wait.
The Texans are finally playing well, but have the recency bias against them after almost losing to a rookie quarterback in Jacksonville. Conversely, the Browns last played a pathetic game in miserable weather and then stepped away for a week. The assumption is that Cleveland will be thoroughly prepared ready to attack.
Maybe, but Houston doesn’t need to win. It just needs to keep the game close.
The Texans are almost certainly not going to the playoffs after their 2-6 start, but they have no incentive to lose games — their first-round pick belongs to Miami. We should see the best efforts of the Texans in the coming weeks, and we should welcome the idea of getting points with them before they start to carry a premium.
Prediction: Texans +3.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 56.5 (-114)
If at first, you don’t succeed…make the identical pick the following week.
Silly as it sounds, there’s something to that. It’s a function of reading the setup and playing the proverbial hand you’re dealt, even if the outcome was unfavorable. Put another way, there are some picks or plays we will always make, even if they have burned us in the past.
Last week, we were burned by the Arizona Cardinals playing in a game that went over its point total. Instead of shying away from Arizona, we’re diving right back in and looking for value with the ‘under.’
Arizona and Miami jumped out to a high-scoring start instantly by scoring a whopping five touchdowns in the first 20 minutes of gameplay. The pace did not continue, however, and the 35 points through the first third of the game turned out to be more than half of the eventual total: 65. Most importantly, seven of the initial 35 points were directly from a fumble returned for a touchdown.
The Buffalo Bills also enjoyed an offensive explosion of their own, but it was an extreme outlier for both the season and the team’s current trend. The 44 points scored were easily a season-high — nine points higher than the prior top output — while the 34 points allowed were the second-most by the Bills, this year. Combined, the 78-point game marked only the second time that Buffalo played in a game with at least 60 points scored for both teams.
Unless both teams directly repeat what we saw in Week 9, we’re looking at an inflated over-under where we can capitalize on the number.
Prediction: Bills/Cardinals UNDER 56.5 (-114)
San Francisco 49ers +9.5 (-110) at New Orleans Saints
There is arguably no greater disparity between perceptions than the high of the New Orleans Saints and the low of the San Francisco 49ers. It makes said gap even more noteworthy that both teams just played a Primetime game.
Simply putting ourselves in the collective mind of the football-watching world, this is probably the easiest matchup of the weekend. The 49ers not only looked inept in their last game — again, on national television — but plan to lean on the same quarterback that led said inept offense. Conversely, no team played a better, more complete game in Week 9 than the Saints.
As a result, the spread has already grown since its open. It may have reached its final place now, but we can easily see how last week is impacting this week’s expectations.
Naturally, we shouldn’t fall for it.
New Orleans is one of the best teams in the league, but we’re looking at the perfect combination of perception imbalance and the team’s likely regression. The Saints have managed to win five consecutive games, but they did so via two overtime victories and a field-goal win. They have also allowed fewer points in five consecutive weeks.
The 49ers’ offense is lacking, but it returns some of its better playmakers on Sunday and has still managed to score at least 17 points in every game this year. Indeed, it has allowed a combined 71 points over the last two weeks, but the team still ranks top-ten in yards and points allowed on a per-game basis.
San Francisco is well-coached and overlooked. It has one more game before heading into a bye week, and it’s poised to put up a fight against the Saints. And a spread that’s too large.
Prediction: 49ers +9.5 (-110)
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.