Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 11 (2020)
The NFL season always gives us opportunities to target a team — or pair of teams — that saw a perception shift because of recent play. In this week’s column, we actually have a nice balance of teams suffering from recency bias in either direction. Some are being penalized by their play, while others are being overlooked.
That’s not all.
Storylines and incentives are relatively easy to find in Week 11, and that’s what makes this sport fun. Even if the matchups are terrible, there’s drama to be found. That drama gets enhanced when we start targeting games for our own picks.
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 20-19-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints UNDER 50 (-110)
The New Orleans Saints just can’t quit Taysom Hill. The infatuation to seemingly force him into action on a ‘drively’ basis — is that a word? — is noteworthy. Now, they’re turning to Hill to start at quarterback in place of the injured Drew Brees.
In itself, this move is as necessary as my opinion is useless. Brees is hurt, and the Saints need a quarterback. Hill is one of the options. The story, however, isn’t about the team turning to Hill. It’s about the team turning to Hill instead of Jameis Winston by choice.
The general assumption is likely going to be that New Orleans ‘trusts’ Hill more than Winston or that the Saints simply think Hill is better. Here’s the secret: we don’t care. I gave my own opinion, but, again, it doesn’t matter. The Saints’ opinion doesn’t even matter.
What does matter is that the Saints probably choose Hill over Winston precisely because he won’t throw as much. They’re picking a quarterback who is less of a quarterback to limit exposure to a bad passing game. That’s it.
Last year, we saw the Saints win five consecutive games with Teddy Bridgewater under center. His average passing yards in those games? 241. His total interceptions in that span? Two.
That’s the key.
The Saints know how to win games without Brees, and it’s with a risk-averse approach. Winston is the epitome of risk.
The good news is that we can use this to our advantage. Less risk means less reward. Less reward means less points on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Saints/Falcons UNDER 50 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-118) at Cleveland Browns
I have a problem. I am way too happy whenever a team loses a game that most people expected them to win. Why? Because there’s always another game. And there’s always another reaction to be found.
When the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the New York Giants, I celebrated the outcome twice. The first was by virtue of picking the Giants against-the-spread as a confidence pick. The second was in preparation for this article.
The Eagles losing to the Giants would undoubtedly cost Philadelphia some perception points. And some actual points in the spread. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now, and it leaves us with tremendous value.
The Cleveland Browns may be 6-3, but they are insanely erratic. They have scored at least 32 points in five games, this year. In the other four, they haven’t topped 10 points! Think about that. The Browns either score upwards of 30 or can’t break 10.
Digging deeper, Cleveland’s best offensive games have been against Cincinnati — twice — Washington, Dallas, and Indianapolis. With the exception of the Colts, no other team listed has more than two wins.
Indeed, Philadelphia is not setting the world on fire in any category, but shouldn’t last week’s loss have done more damage to the spread? Not only is it small, but it’s actually gotten smaller. That’s clear indication of a ‘trap,’ and the Browns — and those who pick them based on the Eagles’ last game — will walk right into it.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 51 (-110)
Whenever one side of the ball dominates, it’s easy to overlook the opposite half of the team. In the case of the Green Bay Packers, their sixth-ranked offense actually hides the defense’s success, where the team also ranks ninth-best in yards allowed. Certainly, it’s not the powerhouse we see in other teams, but the Packers’ defense is no pushover.
Neither is the Indianapolis Colts’ defense. In fact, the Colts are allowing the fewest yards-per-game in the league. They’re outstanding in basically every efficiency and yardage category, and they present the perfect team to slow down Green Bay — where the task would be that-much-easier if wide receiver Davante Adams were to miss the game.
We’ve seen both offenses at their best, so we know each team is capable of thriving without warning, but the numbers actually support a lower-scoring game than many — including the over-under — would expect.
Prediction: Packers/Colts UNDER 51 (-110)
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110)
I have a rule: if the only reason why someone would make an against-the-spread is because one “team is better than†the other, I stop completely. I don’t proceed. I need more. Of course, we know which team is better than the other — most of the time, anyway — but we aren’t picking the winner. We’re picking the winner with a moving target of points.
The Los Angeles Chargers are clearly and obviously better than the New York Jets. That’s irrelevant. What we need to ask is, “Will the Chargers be at least 10 points better than the Jets on Sunday?†If the answer is “yes,†then we next ask, “Why?†and “How?â€
The “why†isn’t overly difficult to answer. The Chargers have a top-flight offense — second in the league in yards-per-game — and the Jets have shown absolutely no ability to stop anyone outside of their division — the Jets have allowed at least 30 points to every single non-divisional opponent.
To answer “how†the Chargers will win easily, we can look at Los Angeles’ recent history against weak teams. Specifically, we can replay the game against the Jaguars and note that Los Angeles let its foot off the metaphorical gas pedal and almost lost. For a team with only two wins on the season, it can’t afford to let the Jets compete at any point.
The Chargers won’t miss the opportunity to finally win a game with relative ease.
Prediction: Chargers -9.5 (-110)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.