Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 12 (2020)
We really haven’t seen a season quite like this.
The obvious separation between this year and the norm is the involvement of COVID-19 and the impact it has on the games. Each week, there is a threat for a postponement, simple shift in the schedule, or loss of a key player. We deal with similar things on a yearly basis, but never like this.
The other oddity in 2020 is the wavering success rate of trends. As a whole, the tried-and-true methods of picking games against-the-spread haven’t held up as well as we would like. In select bursts, however, trends have been outstanding. Like seemingly everything else in 2020, there appears to be a frenetic element of it.
The good news is that this hasn’t been the case lately. Trends are starting to stabilize, and they are growing stronger in recent weeks. As you’ll soon see in this article, we have the ability to turn back to arguably the most important type of trend in the sports betting world: ‘traps.’
The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 21-22-1 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
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Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots UNDER 49.5 (-110)
Why?
That’s a question that continued to appear throughout my analysis of the game between the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots.
Why low-scoring? Why won’t Kyler Murray find success against an overrated Patriots defense? Why won’t Cam Newton — who is likely getting healthier, stronger, and better with each week separated from his bout with COVID-19 — do well against Arizona?
Why?
Really, the question should be directed elsewhere.
Why is the over-under for this game lower than the over-under for Atlanta and Las Vegas, Carolina and Minnesota, and Cleveland and Jacksonville?
Cleveland and Jacksonville.
The job of those who make the odds is to separate people from their money. Period. They do this by creating enticing enough lines to spark action. Want to bet the ‘over?’ Look at the Raiders and Falcons, Panthers and Vikings, Browns and Jaguars, and then look at the Patriots and Cardinals. Arizona and New England sliding in as the lowest total of the four is bait.
Don’t fall for ‘traps.’
In the last seven games involving the Patriots, the final score added up to no more than 47 points. Arizona had three consecutive games in which the Cardinals and their opponent combined for more than 60 points, but, on the season, have played in six games in which the point total failed to reach 50 points. Put another way, the over-under is low for a reason, and only name value will convince people to ignore it and target the ‘over’ anyway.
Don’t be “people.†Don’t ignore it.
Prediction: Cardinals/Patriots UNDER 49.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers +6.5 (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
I’m going right back to the well!
Sure, it’s dramatic, but it’s true. The San Francisco 49ers burned us the last time they played, but I have no qualms about rolling with them once more. Why? Because I doubt many people can even remember the last time they played. No, really. So much happens in a given week in the NFL — and look at this week in which we had Thanksgiving and a movement of a Primetime game — that it’s asking a lot for the average fan to remember a sub-.500 team’s last game.
More importantly, when people do remember when the 49ers last played — two weeks ago — they will quickly look at the final score and cast it aside. “That’s right,†they’ll say. “Nick Mullens lost again.†See? Spreads aren’t the only things I read. I also include minds.
Sticking with the memory element, what will people say about the Los Angeles Rams? You guessed it. “They just beat the Buccaneers!†No one forgot that. It just happened, and it happened in a national spotlight.
It was also the highest-scoring output for the Rams since Week 5. At 27 points.
San Francisco already knocked off Los Angeles on Primetime more than a month ago and, while the 49ers might not pull off the outright ‘upset,’ they have all the makings of a sneaky team primed to play within the spread.
Prediction: 49ers +6.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 56 (-110)
I’m not doing it intentionally, but I find myself working toward a running theme with this BettingPros column that has followed me for the season. That is, we’re embracing the uncomfortable on a regular basis. In prior weeks, I’ve already established why this is important — even if the results don’t always align — and it continues to highlight the games where we would not otherwise be looking.
In this case, it’s the matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs.
It’s perfect because of two separate elements. The first is simply the name value of both teams’ starting quarterbacks. If you put Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes — especially with the numbers they have for this season — in the same game, the easy expectation is that we see offense in droves. Defenses aren’t even considered.
Obviously, that’s a mistake. And it’s the first mistake to make since Tampa Bay’s defense ranks sixth-best in yards allowed and eighth-best in net-yards-per-pass-attempt.
The second key to a lower-than-expected score is the recent play of both teams. We were gifted the opportunity to watch the Buccaneers and Chiefs operate on offense for back-to-back nights, and we saw both deliver one-score-after-another. Not only will that be difficult to repeat on consecutive weeks, but it’s a lot to ask both teams to do so in a spotlight game. It may not be Primetime, but there will be eyeballs on Tampa Bay and Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.
Don’t fall for the easy way out. Take the uncomfortable route, where possible.
Prediction: Chiefs/Buccaneers UNDER 56 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 (-110)
If you read enough articles about picking games against-the-spread or playing daily fantasy sports or doing anything that involves calculated risk, you will eventually land on a keyword used in all similar endeavors: system.
When a particular pick lands within that “system,†you act upon it. The eventual results do not change your action unless so many negative results actually change the system.
What does that mean in human terms?
We take the Philadelphia Eagles and the points on Monday Night Football.
And if we lose with the Philadelphia Eagles and the points, we still take them — or a similar team in a similar position — the next time one presents itself. Because that’s the purpose of the system.
What exactly is the system? In this case, it’s the spread between the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks going on the road for a second consecutive Primetime game against a three-win Eagles team coming off back-to-back losses.
The spread that has gotten smaller since it’s open.
There’s the key.
Spreads move all the time. Often, it’s due to a key injury. Other times, it’s a means of protection for a favorite. When it directly moves against one of the most popular teams in the league, there’s a reason.
A ‘trap’ has been set.
Prediction: Eagles +5.5 (-110)
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 6 years.