Mario Mergola’s NFL Betting Picks for Week 3 (2020)

Every week presents a new opportunity to find value in a football game. Sometimes, we play on overreaction — as in Week 2. Other times, we recognize a ‘trap’ and walk around it.

In Week 3, the path to profit is through vision. We need to “see” the game, both before-and-after it’s played. Doing so will help remove emotion from the equation and focus solely on possible outcomes. By narrowing down the options, we can see exactly where the mismatch lies in the numbers.

The previous picks given in this BettingPros weekly column are 5-3 on the season. The rest of my against-the-spread picks and historical record can be found at Sporfolio.com.

Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook

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Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings +3 (-115)

The introduction of this column focused on “vision,” and I want us to collectively take a look inside the minds of the Minnesota Vikings’ coaching staff. Play this out with me.

We’re in a room with a big screen and a whiteboard. One of the coaches is showing the plays in which we have failed over the last two weeks. Alexander Mattison loses two yards on a run to the left side. Kirk Cousins misses Adam Thielen and then is sacked on the ensuing play. One fail after another.

One coach leans back, hands covering face. Another is silent. One, after scrolling through the statistics, speaks up.

“We’re the Minnesota Vikings. We the run the ball and we pound the run. Why aren’t we doing more of that?”

“We need to get back to the run,” another voice confirms.

“We’re 0-2 for a reason,” a third chimes in, clearing supporting the need to run more.

Maybe the conversation doesn’t happen exactly as I laid out. Maybe there’s some harsher language and fists on tables. Still, the message is there. These same Vikings ran the ball more than all but three teams in 2019. This year? Minnesota has the third-fewest rushing attempts.

Whenever a team is 0-2, we have to legitimately ask ourselves if the team is playing poorly or simply bad. After one week, we probably have a few more options. After two? We’re really only left with one or the other.

The Vikings might be bad. Maybe. But, as we can “see” via this fake conversation, there is a path out of it. There’s the method through which we can watch the game on Sunday and say to ourselves, “They were just playing poorly…because they weren’t running the ball. Now that they are, the Vikings are winning.”

And what about the opponent? Won’t the Tennessee Titans have anything to say in the matter?

Not really. Tennessee ranks fourth-worst in yards-per-rush.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings +3  (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)

The Philadelphia Eagles not only fit the same narrative as the Vikings, but we have an identical fake conversation among the coaching staff that we can easily “see.”

Where the Vikings have failed to run the ball, the Eagles have failed to protect the ball. Through two games, Philadelphia has turned the ball over six times — three in each. Again, placing ourselves within the confines of a meeting room, we can easily picture the conversation. This one probably has more yelling because the blame is placed on the players turning the ball over instead of the coaches not calling run plays. Still, we get it.

If the Eagles were to continue this pace for turnovers for the entire season, they would finish with more than any other team since 2001. It’s not happening.

Philadelphia’s defense has also quietly been good, but it continues to get exposed because of the offense’s giveaways. As of now, the Eagles are top-ten in yards allowed, but bottom-ten in points.

If we want one more similarity between this pick and that of the Vikings, we need to look no further than the opponent. Keeping in mind that Philadelphia’s main problem is turnovers, we welcome the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals have only one takeaway on the season.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5  (-115)

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns UNDER 45 (-110)

While the odds of winning against-the-spread can fluctuate throughout a game, we could conceivably win with the over-under before the final whistle. It’s a target to which the two teams are constantly heading.

“Two teams.”

Generally speaking, we need both teams to contribute to the “over” side an over-under. If we’re looking for high-scoring games, it’s not likely that one team covers the entirety of the number alone. If we’re looking for low-scoring games, we can find this edge if one-of-the-two struggles to find points.

The Washington Football Team is struggling to find points.

I was all over Washington in Week 1 of the season as it “upset” Philadelphia, but it did so with a pathetic 239 yards of total offense. 239. In a win. The following week, Washington tallied only 316 yards of offense against Arizona.

It goes without saying that Washington’s offense ranks at the bottom of the league in yards gained — second-worst, to be exact.

The argument could then turn to the Cleveland Browns. If Washington is truly inept offensively, then surely the Browns can take advantage.

Maybe, but we just established how difficult it is for one team to contribute all of the points necessary for a game to go “over” its total. More importantly, as bad as Washington’s offense is, the team’s defense is its strength. Even after allowing 30 points to the Cardinals, Washington ranks 16th in points allowed and 13th in yards allowed. It’s certainly capable of limiting Cleveland. Especially since the Browns are heavily leaning on the run over the pass — which keeps the game clock rolling.

We probably only need one-of-the-two offenses to have its ceiling capped. We might get both, even if it isn’t completely necessary in order to win with the “under.”

Prediction: Washington Football Team/Browns UNDER 45 (-110)

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers OVER 43.5 (-115)

I try to never be reactionary, but the news that Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will start on Sunday immediately puts the Chargers’ offense in position to thrive.

Using Pro-Football-Reference’s Expected Points, Herbert led his team to 13.33 points in Week 2 compared to Tyrod Taylor’s -2.07 in Week 1. By any metric, what Herbert did in his first career start is impressive, but it’s also a clear improvement over the offense we saw with Taylor.

The danger with the pick, therefore, appears to come from the matchup between Los Angeles’ defense and the offense of the Carolina Panthers. The same Panthers who are now without superstar running back Christian McCaffrey. Admittedly, the loss of McCaffrey is huge, but the over-under has already crept down since its open. In addition, the Panthers actually have the ninth-most passing attempts, fourth-most yards, and rank 11th in net-yards-per-pass-attempt. Especially if Herbert can produce points for the Chargers, the Panthers should be in position to match them throughout the afternoon.

Los Angeles’ defense also gives the false appearance of greatness, where it has allowed the third-fewest points, but ranks only 14th in yards.

Prediction: Panthers/Chargers OVER 43.5 (-115)

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He is also one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks, with a 54.5% accuracy rating in confidence picks over the last 6 years.